Time series of the Niño-3.4 SST index (°C) in observations (black curves) and ensemble-mean forecasts (colored curves) composited for 10 1-yr El Niño, 5 2-yr El Niño, 4 1-yr La Niña, 8 2-yr La Niña, 4 2-yr La Niña following strong El Niño, and 4 2-yr La Niña following moderate El Niño events during 1954–2015.
April 23, 2021

A new study by Wu and co-authors shows that the duration of individual ENSO events during 1954-2015 can be predicted up to two years in advance using a suite of multiyear retrospective forecasts conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 1, a climate model that well simulates the statistical and dynamical features of the temporal evolution of ENSO events.

Are long-term changes in mixed layer depth influencing North Pacific marine heatwaves?
February 26, 2021

A new study by Amaya and co-authors in the Special “Explaining Extremes of 2019 from a Climate Perspective” Issue of BAMS now reveals that the record thin ocean mixed layer depth (MLD) that drove a Blob 2.0 in the northeast Pacific Ocean was exacerbated by a multi-decadal shoaling of the mean MLDs in this region since 1980.

Saildrone: Adaptively sampling the marine environment
July 23, 2020

To improve atmospheric and oceanographic monitoring, a new type of autonomous marine vehicle, the Saildrone, has been developed and deployed in over 40 cruises from which data are publicly available. Coupled with data from other sources such as satellites, Saildrone measurements could be useful for future algorithm and numerical model improvements, particularly at the fine spatial scale and in complex and previously data-sparse ocean regions.

Estimates of interannual variability from new and published coral records from the northern Line Islands
February 13, 2020

A recent study uses large ensembles of an idealized general circulation model to demonstrate how episodic surface warming in the Arctic can lead to delayed responses in the stratosphere that persist for about two months, even in the absence of stationary waves.

Schematic representation of the (a) atmospheric “non-frontal” and (b) atmospheric “frontal” components
October 4, 2018

New research illustrates that the key to recognizing the influence of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Extension on the seasonal mean and longer-term climate is through a proper understanding of how the ocean influences atmospheric fronts.

Boxplots showing how well model forecasts capture the observations between the two winter seasons, 2016–17 minus 2015–16
September 27, 2018

California precipitation is well forecast when the Arctic Oscillation phase is correctly captured by a state-of-the-art forecast system, GloSea5.

Schematic representation of proposed dynamical mechanisms in summer
September 13, 2018

Researchers conduct a comprehensive review of research on summer weather stalling, focusing on the influence of Arctic amplification and how it could interact with other factors influenced by climate change.

Subsurface ocean heat content anomalies regressed onto low-pass filtered time series of eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. The black boxes outline the eastern (10°–20°S, 100°–120°E) and western (10°–20°S, 50°–90°E) Indian Ocean, showing the east–west dipole structure.
September 11, 2018

In two papers, Jin and coauthors investigated how decadal variations of subsurface ocean heat content (50–300 m) in the Indian Ocean respond to conditions in the Pacific region.

Response in wintertime surface air temperature and surface wind to imposed RCP8.5 sea ice loss over the Barents-Kara sea
August 13, 2018

A new Arctic and mid-latitude interaction study highlights the necessity to use stratosphere-resolving models when identifying the warm Arctic–cold Siberia pattern.

trends in the latitude of the (left) Northern Hemisphere and (right) Southern Hemisphere tropical edg
August 8, 2018

Observed Southern Hemisphere summer and fall trends of tropical expansion are well captured in model simulations of the late 20th and early 21st centuries, consistent with the roles of increasing greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion in driving poleward circulation shifts during these seasons.


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