ENSO

Boxplots showing how well model forecasts capture the observations between the two winter seasons, 2016–17 minus 2015–16
September 27, 2018

California precipitation is well forecast when the Arctic Oscillation phase is correctly captured by a state-of-the-art forecast system, GloSea5.

SST anomalies in the boreal winter
August 3, 2018

A coupling in Pacific dynamics has been increasing in observational records between 1950–2017, leading to more frequent occurrences of multi-year warm events like the marine heatwave of 2014–15

Megadrougth schematic and teleconnections
July 16, 2018

To improve estimates of risks associated with megadroughts, researchers look at improving the understanding of ENSO/AMO behavior, their teleconnections, and their response to volcanic eruptions in climate models.

Changes in SST variance of ENSO
April 6, 2018

ENSO experienced a regime shift in the late 1970s, after which events become stronger and less frequent. Researchers now conclude that the regime shift did not occur by chance but was due to a “real” change in the ENSO system.

Observed ocean-atmosphere anomaly patterns multi-year La Niña event
November 28, 2017

New findings could improve our ability to predict both the strength and duration of US droughts caused by La Niña.

modes of the Hadley cell and ENSO
September 29, 2017

As the decadal ENSO cycle transitions to a warm phase, a new study expects accelerated global warming and a “hiatus” in Hadley Cell expansion. 

Monthly SST anomalies 1920–2016
August 30, 2017

New research confirms that links between warm and cool years in the California Current System and El Niño are important but imperfect.  

El Nino events and tropical cyclones, models compared to observations
September 7, 2016

It is well known that ENSO strongly affects the interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. New research shows that models can reproduce interannual variability, but none can capture the distinction between eastern Pacific and central Pacific El Niño events that is found in observations.

Sea level rise in the Pacific
September 1, 2016

The Pacific Ocean has a significant influence on global mean surface temperature, as recently demonstrated during the 2015/16 El Niño. New research shows a new way to quantify the role of the Pacific Ocean using sea level information rather than traditional sea surface temperature data.

wind and temperature anomalies
May 18, 2016

New research shows how easterly winds in the summer of 2014 caused the anomalously warm subsurface water of the tropical Pacific—which presages an El Niño event and formed following the early 2014 westerly wind burst—to never discharge poleward, thereby remaining in the tropical Pacific and giving a head start to the developing 2015-16 El Niño.

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