Extreme Events

Are long-term changes in mixed layer depth influencing North Pacific marine heatwaves?
February 26, 2021

A new study by Amaya and co-authors in the Special “Explaining Extremes of 2019 from a Climate Perspective” Issue of BAMS now reveals that the record thin ocean mixed layer depth (MLD) that drove a Blob 2.0 in the northeast Pacific Ocean was exacerbated by a multi-decadal shoaling of the mean MLDs in this region since 1980.

Spatial distribution of two widespread precipitation events that occurred on 8 May 1995 and 13 September 1961 and geometric illustration of the extent of an SHPE on the ground.
December 30, 2020

Najibi, Devineni, and co-authors present a new idea defined as simultaneous heavy precipitation events (SHPEs) to quantify extreme regional precipitation considering the spatial structure of extreme events. Quantifying the characteristics of SHPEs and modeling their footprints can improve the projections of flood risk and understanding of damages to interconnected infrastructure systems.

Uncertainty for drifter GMSL and GMSL trend estimates.
December 11, 2020

In a recently published Geophysical Research Letters paper, Elipot demonstrates how a new ocean observing system for measuring local and global sea level changes could piggy-back on the existing array of freely drifting buoys.

Six US maps with color modeling
September 4, 2020

Subseasonal to seasonal climate forecasts in the US depends heavily on atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean regions. While ENSO dominates seasonal predictability, the primary source of global predictability on subseasonal timescales is the MJO. To understand how ENSO and MJO interact, the authors isolated both MJO and ENSO signals and found that depending on the simultaneous location of the MJO convection and the background state of ENSO, the two signals can either enhance or mask each other.

Time of emergence of the anthropogenic signal in storm-related extreme sea level at New York in the GFDL CM4 simulations.
June 1, 2020

Yin and coauthors use the new GFDL CM4 and CM4HR models to consider a series of climate change experiments under the CMIP6 protocol to study characteristics of extreme sea level events and their future evolution in a fully coupled weather, climate, sea level, and storm surge modeling system. They found that even in the absence of global warming, the Gulf Coast is most vulnerable to hurricane-induced storm surge.

ean 2014-2016 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) in the Northeast Pacific
February 28, 2020

A recent study explored sea surface temperature anomaly forecasts from an ensemble of eight global climate prediction systems contributing to NMME and found that predictability of warm temperature anomalies off the US West Coast was conditional on which process was driving the temperature anomalies in different phases of the heatwave.

Reconstruction of the weather on February 10, 1936 at 12 UTC
November 18, 2019

A new version 3 of the NOAA-CIRES-DOE 20th Century Reanalysis (20CRv3) recreates a 180-year history of temperature, precipitation, winds, humidity, and many other variables from below the land surface to the top of the atmosphere.

Graph image
October 10, 2019

A Bayesian network inference model was developed to account for and predict the likelihood of floods of various durations using physics informed predictors.

Schematic representation of the (a) atmospheric “non-frontal” and (b) atmospheric “frontal” components
October 4, 2018

New research illustrates that the key to recognizing the influence of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Extension on the seasonal mean and longer-term climate is through a proper understanding of how the ocean influences atmospheric fronts.

Schematic representation of proposed dynamical mechanisms in summer
September 13, 2018

Researchers conduct a comprehensive review of research on summer weather stalling, focusing on the influence of Arctic amplification and how it could interact with other factors influenced by climate change.


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