Extreme Events

Time of emergence of the anthropogenic signal in storm-related extreme sea level at New York in the GFDL CM4 simulations.
June 1, 2020

Yin and coauthors use the new GFDL CM4 and CM4HR models to consider a series of climate change experiments under the CMIP6 protocol to study characteristics of extreme sea level events and their future evolution in a fully coupled weather, climate, sea level, and storm surge modeling system. They found that even in the absence of global warming, the Gulf Coast is most vulnerable to hurricane-induced storm surge.

ean 2014-2016 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) in the Northeast Pacific
February 28, 2020

A recent study explored sea surface temperature anomaly forecasts from an ensemble of eight global climate prediction systems contributing to NMME and found that predictability of warm temperature anomalies off the US West Coast was conditional on which process was driving the temperature anomalies in different phases of the heatwave.

Reconstruction of the weather on February 10, 1936 at 12 UTC
November 18, 2019

A new version 3 of the NOAA-CIRES-DOE 20th Century Reanalysis (20CRv3) recreates a 180-year history of temperature, precipitation, winds, humidity, and many other variables from below the land surface to the top of the atmosphere.

Graph image
October 10, 2019

A Bayesian network inference model was developed to account for and predict the likelihood of floods of various durations using physics informed predictors.

Schematic representation of the (a) atmospheric “non-frontal” and (b) atmospheric “frontal” components
October 4, 2018

New research illustrates that the key to recognizing the influence of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Extension on the seasonal mean and longer-term climate is through a proper understanding of how the ocean influences atmospheric fronts.

Schematic representation of proposed dynamical mechanisms in summer
September 13, 2018

Researchers conduct a comprehensive review of research on summer weather stalling, focusing on the influence of Arctic amplification and how it could interact with other factors influenced by climate change.

SST anomalies in the boreal winter
August 3, 2018

A coupling in Pacific dynamics has been increasing in observational records between 1950–2017, leading to more frequent occurrences of multi-year warm events like the marine heatwave of 2014–15

Megadrougth schematic and teleconnections
July 16, 2018

To improve estimates of risks associated with megadroughts, researchers look at improving the understanding of ENSO/AMO behavior, their teleconnections, and their response to volcanic eruptions in climate models.

Hurricane Harvey and Louisiana flood
June 18, 2018

Regional model simulations suggest that post-1980 warming in both the ocean and atmosphere resulted in an estimated 20% increase of the accumulated precipitation for Hurricane Harvey. 

Future heat wave regions in the US
March 23, 2018

Climate change will drive more frequent and extreme summer heat waves in the western US by late the 2020s, the Great Lakes region by the mid-2030s, and in the northern and southern Plains by the 2050s and 2070s, respectively.

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