Modeling

February 13, 2020

A recent study uses large ensembles of an idealized general circulation model to demonstrate how episodic surface warming in the Arctic can lead to delayed responses in the stratosphere that persist for about two months, even in the absence of stationary waves.

Multi-model mean evolution of the Hadley cell edge (defined by streamfunction at 500 hPa) in the 1 percent CO2 increase simulations. Copyright AGU.
January 14, 2020

Under exclusive CO2 forcing, climate models predicted twice as much Hadley cell expansion in the Southern Hemisphere as in the Northern Hemisphere. The finding was robust across models and all seasons except boreal fall.

Reconstruction of the weather on February 10, 1936 at 12 UTC
November 18, 2019

A new version 3 of the NOAA-CIRES-DOE 20th Century Reanalysis (20CRv3) recreates a 180-year history of temperature, precipitation, winds, humidity, and many other variables from below the land surface to the top of the atmosphere.

Graph image
October 10, 2019

A Bayesian network inference model was developed to account for and predict the likelihood of floods of various durations using physics informed predictors.

Boxplots showing how well model forecasts capture the observations between the two winter seasons, 2016–17 minus 2015–16
September 27, 2018

California precipitation is well forecast when the Arctic Oscillation phase is correctly captured by a state-of-the-art forecast system, GloSea5.

Subsurface ocean heat content anomalies regressed onto low-pass filtered time series of eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. The black boxes outline the eastern (10°–20°S, 100°–120°E) and western (10°–20°S, 50°–90°E) Indian Ocean, showing the east–west dipole structure.
September 11, 2018

In two papers, Jin and coauthors investigated how decadal variations of subsurface ocean heat content (50–300 m) in the Indian Ocean respond to conditions in the Pacific region.

linear model accounting for changes in drying ratio and mean source distance
September 4, 2018

A new study shows that a simple linear model that accounts for changes in mean source distance, as well as the local drying ratio, can successfully replicate water isotopic variations in space and time.

The Observational Large Ensemble (Obs-LE) can be used to assess the relative roles of internal variability and anthropogenic influence on 50-year trends in (a-b) temperature and (c-d) precipitation over land.
August 29, 2018

Researchers have developed a complementary approach to creating ensembles for seasonal-average temperature and precipitation over land that can also be used to study internal variability.

Response in wintertime surface air temperature and surface wind to imposed RCP8.5 sea ice loss over the Barents-Kara sea
August 13, 2018

A new Arctic and mid-latitude interaction study highlights the necessity to use stratosphere-resolving models when identifying the warm Arctic–cold Siberia pattern.

trends in the latitude of the (left) Northern Hemisphere and (right) Southern Hemisphere tropical edg
August 8, 2018

Observed Southern Hemisphere summer and fall trends of tropical expansion are well captured in model simulations of the late 20th and early 21st centuries, consistent with the roles of increasing greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion in driving poleward circulation shifts during these seasons.

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