A recent study uses large ensembles of an idealized general circulation model to demonstrate how episodic surface warming in the Arctic can lead to delayed responses in the stratosphere that persist for about two months, even in the absence of stationary waves.
Under exclusive CO2 forcing, climate models predicted twice as much Hadley cell expansion in the Southern Hemisphere as in the Northern Hemisphere. The finding was robust across models and all seasons except boreal fall.
A new version 3 of the NOAA-CIRES-DOE 20th Century Reanalysis (20CRv3) recreates a 180-year history of temperature, precipitation, winds, humidity, and many other variables from below the land surface to the top of the atmosphere.
A Bayesian network inference model was developed to account for and predict the likelihood of floods of various durations using physics informed predictors.
California precipitation is well forecast when the Arctic Oscillation phase is correctly captured by a state-of-the-art forecast system, GloSea5.
In two papers, Jin and coauthors investigated how decadal variations of subsurface ocean heat content (50–300 m) in the Indian Ocean respond to conditions in the Pacific region.
A new study shows that a simple linear model that accounts for changes in mean source distance, as well as the local drying ratio, can successfully replicate water isotopic variations in space and time.
Researchers have developed a complementary approach to creating ensembles for seasonal-average temperature and precipitation over land that can also be used to study internal variability.
A new Arctic and mid-latitude interaction study highlights the necessity to use stratosphere-resolving models when identifying the warm Arctic–cold Siberia pattern.
Observed Southern Hemisphere summer and fall trends of tropical expansion are well captured in model simulations of the late 20th and early 21st centuries, consistent with the roles of increasing greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion in driving poleward circulation shifts during these seasons.
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