Modeling

sensible heat and evaporation fluxes in the Arctic Ocean
April 19, 2018

Researchers conclude that changes in sensible heat transfer and evaporation fluxes — in response to strong regional trends in sea ice cover — are becoming increasingly consequential to Arctic climate variability and change. 

Changes in SST variance of ENSO
April 6, 2018

ENSO experienced a regime shift in the late 1970s, after which events become stronger and less frequent. Researchers now conclude that the regime shift did not occur by chance but was due to a “real” change in the ENSO system.

Future heat wave regions in the US
March 23, 2018

Climate change will drive more frequent and extreme summer heat waves in the western US by late the 2020s, the Great Lakes region by the mid-2030s, and in the northern and southern Plains by the 2050s and 2070s, respectively.

Decadal-scale correlations between northern Gulf of Mexico and global sea surface salinity as well as continental precipitation
February 28, 2018

Researchers show that weakened surface ocean circulation coincides with precipitation during the Little Ice Age and is consistent with little-to-no changes in the larger Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. 

Southern ocean carbon flux to the atmosphere
January 18, 2018

To better understand climate variability and the Southern Ocean, researchers estimate spatial correlations of ocean properties to reveal how many observing platforms are necessary to adequately observe carbon and heat.

Sensitivity of the zonal winds in the Arctic
January 4, 2018

New research shows that regional Arctic temperature swings can influence jet stream positions and speeds but only account for a small fraction of the jet variations, implying other factors are crucial for predicting jet stream behavior. 

Atlantic hurricanes
December 11, 2017

Using observations and a coupled Earth system model, a new study shows that the decline of the Atlantic major hurricane frequency during 2005–2015 is associated with a weakening of the AMOC.

Observed ocean-atmosphere anomaly patterns multi-year La Niña event
November 28, 2017

New findings could improve our ability to predict both the strength and duration of US droughts caused by La Niña.

A Southern Ocean polynya
November 2, 2017

Researchers observed a natural, regular, multidecadal oscillation between periods of Southern Ocean open-sea convection, which can act a release valve for the ocean’s heat, and non-convective periods.

modes of the Hadley cell and ENSO
September 29, 2017

As the decadal ENSO cycle transitions to a warm phase, a new study expects accelerated global warming and a “hiatus” in Hadley Cell expansion. 

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