Modeling

AMOC RCP4.5 and 8.5
January 19, 2017

A new study shows that the AMOC is more sensitive to warming, including changes in the atmospheric hydrological cycle, than Greenland Ice Sheet melting. However, Greenland Ice Sheet melt further increases the projected AMOC weakening.

Global-mean surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies with respect to preindustrial reference level. Left panel: Reconstructions of global-mean SAT anomaly for the last 784,000 years based on studies indicated in the panel. Right panel: Reconstructed and simulated global-mean SAT anomaly and global warming projections from data sources indicated in the panel.
November 23, 2016

New research looking at glacial-interglacial climate variability during the last 784,000 years finds that Earth's climate sensitivity is strongly dependent on the climate background state with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Because the Earth is currently in a warm state, the associated increased climate sensitivity has to be taken into account for future warming projections.

Research onboard the RV Knorr
November 17, 2016

New research finds that changes in the strength of the Agulhas Current, since the early 1990s, has not increased, despite expectations based on rapidly warming sea surface temperatures. Instead, its flow has broadened due to more meanders and eddies.

Composite analysis of sea surface temperatures based on Atlantic Water temperature variability.
October 26, 2016

Research shows that decadal shifts of subsurface Atlantic Water temperatures, along the North Atlantic Current, are associated with a progression of heat anomalies from the Gulf Stream region that coincide with sea surface temperatures extending to cover most of the subpolar and tropical North Atlantic; a signal similar to that of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

Indo-Pacific tropical rain belt expanded and contracted in the past
October 5, 2016

A new study using a high-resolution stalagmite record from Australia with cave sites in southern China reveal a close coupling of monsoon rainfall on both continents, with numerous synchronous pluvial and drought periods, suggesting that the tropical rain belt expanded and contracted numerous times at multidecadal to centennial scales.

El Nino events and tropical cyclones, models compared to observations
September 7, 2016

It is well known that ENSO strongly affects the interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. New research shows that models can reproduce interannual variability, but none can capture the distinction between eastern Pacific and central Pacific El Niño events that is found in observations.

Sea level rise in the Pacific
September 1, 2016

The Pacific Ocean has a significant influence on global mean surface temperature, as recently demonstrated during the 2015/16 El Niño. New research shows a new way to quantify the role of the Pacific Ocean using sea level information rather than traditional sea surface temperature data.

Prediction uncertainty associated with model simulations of an ice-free Arctic
August 29, 2016

New research focused on determining how well the occurrence of an ice-free Arctic can be predicted. What the researchers found is that the uncertainty for the prediction of an ice-free Arctic, caused by internal climate variability, amounts to around two decades.

Currents and rainfall around Florida
August 10, 2016

Robust surface ocean currents around Peninsular Florida, namely the Loop and the Florida Currents, are shown to affect the terrestrial wet season of Peninsular Florida. New research shows that differences in the ocean bathymetry (or topography) of two novel numerical climate model integrations can influence the ocean currents and their impact on regional climate.

Model showing lag correlations with temperature
July 8, 2016

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a naturally occurring pattern of sea surface temperature change that is seen in the North Atlantic Ocean on decadal timescales and affects weather and climate. Some have suggested that the AMO is a consequence of variable large-scale ocean circulation. Yet new research by Clement and coauthors suggest otherwise.

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