Modeling

Sea level rise in the Pacific
September 1, 2016

The Pacific Ocean has a significant influence on global mean surface temperature, as recently demonstrated during the 2015/16 El Niño. New research shows a new way to quantify the role of the Pacific Ocean using sea level information rather than traditional sea surface temperature data.

Prediction uncertainty associated with model simulations of an ice-free Arctic
August 29, 2016

New research focused on determining how well the occurrence of an ice-free Arctic can be predicted. What the researchers found is that the uncertainty for the prediction of an ice-free Arctic, caused by internal climate variability, amounts to around two decades.

Currents and rainfall around Florida
August 10, 2016

Robust surface ocean currents around Peninsular Florida, namely the Loop and the Florida Currents, are shown to affect the terrestrial wet season of Peninsular Florida. New research shows that differences in the ocean bathymetry (or topography) of two novel numerical climate model integrations can influence the ocean currents and their impact on regional climate.

Model showing lag correlations with temperature
July 8, 2016

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a naturally occurring pattern of sea surface temperature change that is seen in the North Atlantic Ocean on decadal timescales and affects weather and climate. Some have suggested that the AMO is a consequence of variable large-scale ocean circulation. Yet new research by Clement and coauthors suggest otherwise.

Ocean models for the AMO index
June 28, 2016

In a recent technical comment, Zhang et al. show that ocean dynamics play a central role in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the previous claims that “the AMO is a thermodynamic response of the ocean mixed layer to stochastic atmospheric forcing, and ocean circulation changes have no role in causing the AMO” are not justified.

Ocean oxygen levels
May 24, 2016

There is very little doubt that human-driven climate warming will ultimately result in widespread ocean deoxygenation; however, substantial natural variation and sparse observational records make it difficult to determine when. New research suggests that human-driven changes in oxygen levels are evident in many oceanic regions now and will be widespread in the next 15-20 years.

Small island nations aridity
April 19, 2016

Future changes in freshwater availability are a major concern in the context of climate change. New research finds that overall changes to island freshwater balance will shift towards greater aridity for over 73% of 80 globally distributed island groups identified, impacting 16 million people by mid-century.

Global ocean carbon sink
March 17, 2016

The ocean carbon sink is a cumulative net sink of anthropogenic carbon from the atmosphere, having absorbed 41% of all emissions due to fossil fuel and cement manufacturing. New research uses a climate model to estimate when growth of the carbon sink could be detected from the noise of the natural variability.

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