CMEP 2004 Announcement of Opportunity

The U.S. contribution to Climate Variability and Predictability

May 14, 2004



NSF, NOAA, NASA and DOE plan to grant 10-15 one-year awards at $25,000 as supplements or small grants to PIs to support diagnostic analyses leading to the evaluation of U.S. coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th - 20th century. The objective is to increase community-wide diagnostic research into the quality of model simulations, leading to more robust evaluations of model predictions and a better quantification of uncertainty in projections of future climate. The results of this research will be used for the subsequent evaluations of the quality of U.S. model global and regional climate projections of the 21st century and beyond in the context of an international multi-model dataset. Groups in the U.S. and internationally are conducting late 19th - 20th century simulation experiments and 21st - 23rd century projection experiments for assessment in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The late 19th - 20th century simulations will be available in September 2004, from roughly fourteen modeling groups worldwide, including, for the U.S., NCAR, GFDL and GISS. These Centers and the funding agencies invite climate scientists to propose diagnostic studies to use existing observational datasets to evaluate the simulations, on regional, sectoral, and/or global domains and for variability and/or trends, including extreme events. Model output and selected observational data sets for the research will be available from PCMDI. Table 1 lists the model simulation data sets that will be available, the anticipated date they will be available, and a contact point. The research to be funded is expected to commence in September 2004. Successful PIs will be expected to participate in and discuss their results at a workshop to be convened in March 2005 (see attachment A). Since the same climate models will project 21st – 23rd century climate, it is anticipated that the results of the diagnostic studies of their late 19th - 20th century simulations, funded under this opportunity, will aid in understanding and assessing the uncertainty of the future climate change projections for the IPCC AR4 at global and regional scales.


Eligibility: Any investigator from a U.S. institution, government, or non-government, is eligible, except those from either of the four participating centers: NCAR, GFDL, GISS, and PCMDI. Collaboration with principal scientists in these centers (CCSM, GFDL, GISS, PCMDI) is encouraged. However, funding for PIs in these centers (if required) is outside this competition and is not guaranteed. PIs from the centers should contact program mangers from their respective agencies for guidance.


Proposals: Proposals must be responsive to the objective and goals outlined above and the requirements and publication schedule described in Attachment A. The proposals must include a. A project summary 1 page or less b. Project description 5 pages, including a work plan and time line, figures and references, d. Budget c. CV(s) The five-page project description should focus on what will be done and how, rather than include general background science. Budgets must be no more than $25,000 (except under extraordinary circumstances that must be justified). Travel funds for the March 2005 workshop should not be included in the proposal budget; they will be provided separately. At least one U.S. modeling center’s simulations must be analyzed. More than one is encouraged. The analyses of non-U.S. modeling center simulations may also be included in the work plan. The agencies will attempt to make available funding for follow up research on the multi-century projections, either through a new competition in FY 2005 or 2006, or supplemental funding to successful PIs in this competition.


Proposals should be sent INFORMALLY by email (PDF format) to Cathy Stephens, at the US CLIVAR PO, by no later than 5 pm EDT, June 10, 2004. DO NOT SUBMIT THE PROPOSAL TO A FUNDING AGENCY AT THIS TIME. Successful PIs will be invited to submit full proposals to the funding agencies on July 1, 2004. Review The proposals will be reviewed by the US CLIVAR Scientific Steering Committee and representatives of the NCAR (CCSM), GFDL, GISS and PCMDI centers. Their recommendations will be provided to the funding agencies for their funding deliberations. Schedule Informal proposals due by June 10, 2004. Please transmit as a PDF file.


**Informal proposals refer to scientific content without authorized signatures and forms.

** Successful PIs informed by July 1, 2004 Formal proposals submitted by July 10, 2004

** Formal proposals will require all authorized signatures and NSF forms. The scientific content should remain the same as in the informal proposals.

** Grants awarded in early September 2004.


TABLE 1 ATTACHMENT A: Successful PIs will be expected to participate and discuss their results in a workshop to be convened in March 2005. In late summer 2004, PIs will be asked to register with the WGCM Climate Simulation Panel briefly stating their research project and anticipated results. The Panel will compile a list of PIs and topics to furnish the IPCC chapter lead authors in September 2004. PIs are expected to participate in the International Workshop on Analyses of Climate Model Simulations for the IPCC AR4. The workshop will be held from March 1 - 4, 2005, and will be convened by U.S. CLIVAR and hosted by the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) at the University of Hawaii in Honolulu. Scientific papers describing the results of the multi-model analyses for IPCC will be presented at the workshop. There will be a workshop report summarizing the presentations that will be furnished to the lead authors of the relevant chapters for the AR4. Results from the analysis projects must then be written up by the respective investigators, and submitted to peer-reviewed journals by the time of the Second IPCC Lead Author Meeting in May 2005, in order to be fully included and assessed in the AR4 as specified by the guidelines of IPCC.