Global-mean surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies with respect to a preindustrial reference level.
Paleodata-based global warming projection provides confirmation of CMIP5 estimates

New research looking at glacial-interglacial climate variability during the last 784,000 years finds that Earth's climate sensitivity is strongly dependent on the climate background state with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Because the Earth is currently in a warm state, the associated increased climate sensitivity has to be taken into account for future warming projections.

Researchers on the RV Knorr
Agulhas Current widens as climate warms

New research finds that changes in the strength of the Agulhas Current, since the early 1990s, has not increased, despite expectations based on rapidly warming sea surface temperatures. Instead, its flow has broadened due to more meanders and eddies.

Global impact of oceanic variability in the subpolar North Atlantic
Global impact of oceanic variability in the subpolar North Atlantic

Research shows that decadal shifts of subsurface Atlantic Water temperatures, along the North Atlantic Current, are associated with a progression of heat anomalies from the Gulf Stream region that coincide with sea surface temperatures extending to cover most of the subpolar and tropical North Atlantic; a signal similar to that of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
Long tide gauge records may underestimate global sea level rise

New research shows that even the longest and highest-quality tide gauge data may underestimate the amount of global average sea level rise that occurred during the 20th century, due to their limited location.

Indo-Pacific tropical rain belt expanded and contracted in the past
Indo-Pacific tropical rain belt expanded and contracted in the past

A new study using a high-resolution stalagmite record from Australia with cave sites in southern China reveal a close coupling of monsoon rainfall on both continents, with numerous synchronous pluvial and drought periods, suggesting that the tropical rain belt expanded and contracted numerous times at multidecadal to centennial scales.

Modeling western North Pacific tropical cyclones associated with ENSO
Modeling western North Pacific tropical cyclones associated with ENSO

It is well known that ENSO strongly affects the interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. New research shows that models can reproduce interannual variability, but none can capture the distinction between eastern Pacific and central Pacific El Niño events that is found in observations.

Welcome to the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program

Submit an abstract to 2017 Sea Level Rise Conference

Sea level rise will impact coastal communities

The WCRP, jointly with the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO, is organizing an international conference on sea level research that will address the existing challenges in describing and predicting regional sea level changes and in quantifying the intrinsic uncertainties. The "Regional Sea Level Changes and Coastal Impacts" conference will be held July 10-14, 2017 at Columbia University in New York. Abstract submissions are due February 15.

Submit an abstract to 2017 AMOC meeting

Scientific session during the 2014 AMOC meeting

The 2017 AMOC Science Team Meeting will take place in Santa Fe, New Mexico from May 23-25, 2017. The meeting will serve to identify emerging research gaps and questions, provide updates on progress within the community, and discuss future opportunities and legacy activities as the Science Team plans to wrap-up in 2020. The meeting is open to all. Abstracts are due January 13. 

Variations: S2S Predictability of Extreme Weather

Variations cover

Society needs credible and usable forecasts of extreme and hazardous events on the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale, particularly as a warming climate amplifies these events. This edition of Variations aims to initiate that conversation by addressing the state of the science for using models to represent and predict extreme and hazardous events on S2S timescales. Also, tune in for a webinar to hear from the contributors on December 8.    

Process Study webinar series for 2016/17

cloud convection

The PSMI Panel is organizing a webinar series on proposed and current process studies from November 2016 to March 2017. The goals of this webinar series are to provide feedback on the plans and distil programmatic lessons learned. The webinars are open to the entire community. To see the complete list of process studies and information on how to join, visit the read more link. 

CLIVAR-relevant sessions at AGU Fall Meeting

AGU Fall Meeting logo

AGU Fall Meeting will be held this year from December 12 - 16. In preparation for the meeting, the US CLIVAR Project Office has compiled a condensed list of sessions that are relevant to the community. Organized according to core science topics and research challenges, the list of sessions is not intended to be exhaustive, but to help the community digest the collection of the hundreds of sessions and events.