Welcome to the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program

Research Highlight: Historical record of AMOC variability inconsistent in ocean reanalysis products

Ocean Reanalysis of AMOC

Contrary to the conventional expectation that the imposition of subsurface data constraints will draw the AMOC in reanalysis products into agreement, Karspeck et al. finds that the historical AMOC variability is less consistent among the reanalysis products than in corresponding simulations without subsurface data constraints.

Call for new US CLIVAR Panel members

2014 US CLIVAR Summit

The US CLIVAR Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) seeks qualified individuals to serve on its three subsidiary Panels. These Panels formulate science goals and implementation strategies, catalyze and coordinate activities, and work with agencies and international partners to advance the progress of the climate research community. For more information, and to nominate yourself or a colleague, please review the full announcement. Nominations are due December 11.

2015 Variations Fall Edition: The Southern Ocean's role in climate

cover imate

Vertical exchange in the Southern Ocean between the atmosphere and the surface and deep ocean has a profound influence on the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon and heat, as well as nutrient resupply from the abyss to the surface. Despite this importance, the Southern Ocean remains the most poorly observed and understood part of the global ocean. This collection of articles looks to understand the Southern Ocean's role in climate. 

Research Highlight: More frequent droughts and floods likely in California later this century

ENSO and Pacific Ocean

In the future, the Pacific Ocean's temperature cycles could disrupt more than just December fishing. Known collectively as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, the changing seasonal phenomena known as El Niño and La Niña could lead to at least a doubling of extreme droughts and floods in California later this century.

Webinar series on process studies

Antarctic Circumpolar Current schematic

The PSMI Panel is organizing a set of webinars (45 minutes in length each) on process studies from November 2015 to March 2016. The goals of this webinar series are to provide feedback on the plans and challenges for individual process studies and distill programmatic lessons learned. For information on how to log in, view the calendar on the PSMI webpage and click "look for more" to see the complete list. 

Workshop report on Ocean's Carbon and Heat Uptake

Workshop report cover

A workshop jointly sponsored by the US CLIVAR and OCB Programs was convened in December 2014 on “Ocean’s Carbon and Heat Uptake: Uncertainties and Metrics” and the challenges of improving observations, process understanding, and modeling. Building on the efforts of the Ocean Carbon Uptake and Southern Ocean Working Groups, this workshop report features key highlights and recommendations for the community.

Research Highlight: Tropical Pacific decadal trends during global warming hiatus

Pacific decadal trend

Earth’s surface air temperature has significantly increased over the 20th century, although this overall global warming has been punctuated by periods of weaker/stalled warming or even cooling. Research suggests that shifts in the circulation of the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have played a key role in the present hiatus’ development.

Research Highlight: Is the melting Arctic making cold US winters more likely?

Arctic sea ice

In early January 2014, an Arctic air outbreak brought extreme cold and heavy snowfall to central and eastern North America, causing widespread disruption and monetary losses. However, new research by Screen et al., using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, finds that the risk of North American daily cold extremes decreases in the future.

Save the Date: Paleo AMOC Workshop

AMOC current

On May 23-25, 2016, paleoceangraphy and physical oceanography researchers will gather for a workshop on Connecting Paleo and Modern Oceanographic Data to Understand AMOC over Decades to Centuries. Participation will be limited to 60 people and the application process will open this winter. 

CLIVAR-relevant sessions at the 2015 AGU Fall Meeting

AGU Fall Meeting Logo

AGU Fall Meeting will be held this year from December 14 - 18. In preparation for the meeting, the US CLIVAR Project Office has compiled a condensed list of sessions that are relevant to the community.