Global impact of oceanic variability in the subpolar North Atlantic
Global impact of oceanic variability in the subpolar North Atlantic

Research shows that decadal shifts of subsurface Atlantic Water temperatures, along the North Atlantic Current, are associated with a progression of heat anomalies from the Gulf Stream region that coincide with sea surface temperatures extending to cover most of the subpolar and tropical North Atlantic; a signal similar to that of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
Long tide gauge records may underestimate global sea level rise

New research shows that even the longest and highest-quality tide gauge data may underestimate the amount of global average sea level rise that occurred during the 20th century, due to their limited location.

Indo-Pacific tropical rain belt expanded and contracted in the past
Indo-Pacific tropical rain belt expanded and contracted in the past

A new study using a high-resolution stalagmite record from Australia with cave sites in southern China reveal a close coupling of monsoon rainfall on both continents, with numerous synchronous pluvial and drought periods, suggesting that the tropical rain belt expanded and contracted numerous times at multidecadal to centennial scales.

Modeling western North Pacific tropical cyclones associated with ENSO
Modeling western North Pacific tropical cyclones associated with ENSO

It is well known that ENSO strongly affects the interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. New research shows that models can reproduce interannual variability, but none can capture the distinction between eastern Pacific and central Pacific El Niño events that is found in observations.

Pacific sea level rise and temperature
Pacific sea level tilt predicts global temperature changes

The Pacific Ocean has a significant influence on global mean surface temperature, as recently demonstrated during the 2015/16 El Niño. New research shows a new way to quantify the role of the Pacific Ocean using sea level information rather than traditional sea surface temperature data.

Prediction uncertainty associated with model simulations of an ice-free Arctic due to internal variability and differences in emissions.
How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic?

New research focused on determining how well the occurrence of an ice-free Arctic can be predicted. What the researchers found is that the uncertainty for the prediction of an ice-free Arctic, caused by internal climate variability, amounts to around two decades.

Welcome to the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program

CLIVAR-relevant sessions at AGU Fall Meeting

AGU Fall Meeting logo

AGU Fall Meeting will be held this year from December 12 - 16. In preparation for the meeting, the US CLIVAR Project Office has compiled a condensed list of sessions that are relevant to the community. Organized according to core science topics and research challenges, the list of sessions is not intended to be exhaustive, but to help the community digest the collection of the hundreds of sessions and events. 

Call for new US CLIVAR Panel members

The US CLIVAR Scientific Steering Committee seeks qualified individuals to serve on its three subsidiary panels beginning in 2017. Panel members formulate science goals and implementation strategies, catalyze and coordinate activities, and work with agencies and international partners to advance the progress of the climate research community. Nominations or self-nominations are due December 2, 2016. 

Variations, Summer 2016: Probing the Past for Keys to the Future

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has a profound impact on the climate system. But how AMOC has behaved in the past and how it will evolve in the future could be better addressed with longer observational records. Natural archives – such as marine sediments, ice cores, cave deposits, and biogenic calcium carbonate – of Earth’s past may provide a way forward without having to wait multiple decades or centuries for the observational record to become long enough. 

2016 US AMOC Science Team report

AMOC report cover

The US AMOC Science Team releases its eighth progress report, since the inception of the program in 2008. The purpose of this report is to summarize progress on the main objectives of the program, identify any new programmatic gaps, and provide updates on both near-term and long-term research priorities, action items, and objectives for the program since the 2014 report.

Save the Date: 2017 Sea Level Rise Conference

Sea level rise will impact coastal communities

The WCRP, jointly with the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO, is organizing an international conference on sea level research that will address the existing challenges in describing and predicting regional sea level changes and in quantifying the intrinsic uncertainties. The "Regional Sea Level Changes and Coastal Impacts" conference will be held July 10-14, 2017 at The Earth Institute/Columbia University in New York.