Time of emergence of the anthropogenic signal in storm-related extreme sea level at New York in the GFDL CM4 simulations.
Elevated storm surge differs in origin along the US East and Gulf Coasts

Yin and coauthors use the new GFDL CM4 and CM4HR models to consider a series of climate change experiments under the CMIP6 protocol to study characteristics of extreme sea level events and their future evolution in a fully coupled weather, climate, sea level, and storm surge modeling system. They found that even in the absence of global warming, the Gulf Coast is most vulnerable to hurricane-induced storm surge.

A schematic of the transport structure across the Labrador Sea
Density compensation minimizes the impact of the Labrador Sea convection to the AMOC

Zou and coauthors analyzed the transport and property fields across the Labrador Sea using OSNAP observations and an ocean reanalysis dataset GloSea5 to study why recent observations revealed minimal contribution of the Labrador Sea convection to the subpolar AMOC strength. They found that the density compensation has important consequences on the strength of the overturning circulation.

Efficacy of tropical width perturbations versus normalized extratropical static stability
Tropical belt width proportionately more sensitive to aerosols than greenhouse gases

Internal variability and anthropogenic forcing have contributed to the widening of the tropical belt during the last several decades. To better understand the effect of individual anthropogenic drivers (including aerosols) on the tropical belt, Zhao, Allen, and coauthors utilize idealized simulations with very large single forcing perturbations in comprehensive coupled ocean-atmosphere models from the PDRMIP.

Zonally averaged multi-model average shortwave low cloud feedbacks
Latest Earth System Models predict more global warming than their predecessors

Zelinka and coauthors compared ECS values derived from CO2 quadrupling experiments conducted with CMIP6 and CMIP5 models and found that the latest models warm more than their predecessors by about 0.5˚C. The primary culprit for the enhanced warming was shown to be clouds.

Mean 2014-2016 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) in the Northeast Pacific
Diverse processes driving a heatwave’s evolution result in conditional forecast skill for the US West Coast

A recent study explored sea surface temperature anomaly forecasts from an ensemble of eight global climate prediction systems contributing to NMME and found that predictability of warm temperature anomalies off the US West Coast was conditional on which process was driving the temperature anomalies in different phases of the heatwave.

How short-term Arctic warming can lead to delayed stratospheric circulation responses

A recent study uses large ensembles of an idealized general circulation model to demonstrate how episodic surface warming in the Arctic can lead to delayed responses in the stratosphere that persist for about two months, even in the absence of stationary waves.

Welcome to the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program

New! Data Science Working Group Webinar Series

Data Science Working Group Webinar Series

We are pleased to announce the US CLIVAR Data Science Working Group Webinar Series. Organized by the Data Science Working Group, the webinar series will feature in experts in Earth science, statistics, and computer science with the specific goal of fostering collaboration across these disciplinary boundaries. We are excited to have Bin Yu (University of California Berkeley) kick us off on June 8.

AMOC Webinar Series

AMOC Webinar Series

US AMOC and UK RAPID have organized a webinar series to share summaries of the papers published in the AGU special collection with the broad international ocean and climate science community. The webinars are held on the third Thursday of every month @ 11am EDT/4pm BST.

POSTPONED - US AMOC Science Team Meeting

US AMOC Science Team Meeting

The US AMOC Science Team Meeting, originally scheduled for September 14-17, 2020, is now postponed. We are aiming to host this meeting in Spring 2021 and will communicate dates once they are finalized.

POSTPONED - Arctic Circulation Workshop

Arctic Circulation Workshop

The Observing, Modeling, and Understanding the Circulation of the Arctic Ocean and Sub-Arctic Seas Workshop is postponed to Summer 2021, dates to be determined. The organizing committee will initiate an online topical community discussion this summer to share perspectives in advance of the workshop.

May Newsgram

The latest news, meetings, jobs, and funding opportunities for the climate science community in our May Newsgram.

Forecasting ENSO Impacts on Marine Ecosystems of the US West Coast

ENSO Report

New workshop report! A joint US CLIVAR and OCB effort, the 2016 Workshop on Forecasting ENSO Impacts on Marine Ecosystems of the US West Coast aimed to develop a strategy for connecting ENSO physical climate forecasts to marine ecosystem forecasts along the US West Coast, in particular the California Current System.

Ocean Mesoscale Eddy Interactions with the Atmosphere

OME Workshop Report

The 2018 Ocean Mesoscale Eddy Interactions with the Atmosphere Workshop addressed three question: How can we better assess, through direct measurements, eddy interactions with the atmosphere? How do such interactions affect ocean dynamics? Can eddies, despite their small sizes, influence weather and climate? Summaries and recommendations from this joint US CLIVAR and CLIVAR workshop are captured in the workshop report.

CLIVAR-relevant meetings and workshop status

Coronavirus news

We have compiled a list of relevant meetings and workshops and their status as we all grapple with the fast-changing evolution of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak and the governmental, organizational, and personal decisions that are affecting our work lives. The list is not intended to be exhaustive and status of these events may change at any time.