Schematic representation of the atmospheric “non-frontal” component
New perspectives regarding Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Extension influence on the atmosphere

New research illustrates that the key to recognizing the influence of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Extension on the seasonal mean and longer-term climate is through a proper understanding of how the ocean influences atmospheric fronts.

Boxplots showing how well model forecasts capture the observations between the two winter seasons, 2016–17 minus 2015–16,
California winter precipitation linked to the Arctic Oscillation

California precipitation is well forecast when the Arctic Oscillation phase is correctly captured by a state-of-the-art forecast system, GloSea5.

Schematic representation of proposed dynamical mechanisms in summer.
The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation

Researchers conduct a comprehensive review of research on summer weather stalling, focusing on the influence of Arctic amplification and how it could interact with other factors influenced by climate change.

Subsurface ocean heat content anomalies regressed onto low-pass filtered time series of eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. The black boxes outline the eastern (10°–20°S, 100°–120°E) and western (10°–20°S, 50°–90°E) Indian Ocean, showing the east-west dipole structure
Pacific influences decadal Indian Ocean heat content via two distinct mechanisms

In two recent papers, Jin and coauthors investigated how decadal variations of subsurface ocean heat content (50–300 m) in the Indian Ocean respond to conditions in the Pacific region.

simple linear model accounting for changes in drying ratio and mean source distance (MSD)
Global patterns of evaporation and precipitation leave a traceable isotopic fingerprint

A new study shows that a simple linear model that accounts for changes in mean source distance, as well as the local drying ratio, can successfully replicate water isotopic variations in space and time.

The Observational Large Ensemble (Obs-LE) can be used to assess the relative roles of internal variability and anthropogenic influence on 50-year trends in (a-b) temperature and (c-d) precipitation over land.
Developing Observational Large Ensembles for climate variability

Researchers have developed a complementary approach to creating ensembles for seasonal-average temperature and precipitation over land that can also be used to study internal variability.

Welcome to the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program

The Large Ensembles Workshop

Globe and trend lines for earth system modeling

Registration and abstract submission is open for The Large Ensembles Workshop, July 24-26, 2019, at the NCAR Mesa Lab in Boulder, Colorado. We seek participation of scientists across disciplines who are interested in using large initial-condition ensembles with Earth System Models to understand natural climate variability, anthropogenic climate change, and their impacts. Applications and abstracts are due March 8.

TPOS 2020 Second Report

Comments are invited on the draft Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) 2020 Second Report. This Report updates the evolving design of the backbone observing system, responding to feedback on the First Report, new research and evidence, and gaps identified by sponsors. Download the report and review template at the link below and submit the completed template to to by the February 28.

International Conferences on Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction Report

Conference logo

A meeting report summarizing the September 2018 WCRP International Subseasonal to Decadal (S2D) Prediction Conference has been published in the January 31 edition of EOS.

International AMOC Science Meeting Report

Meeting logo

A meeting report summarizing the June 2018 International Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Science Meeting has been published in the January 30 edition of EOS.