Schematic representation of proposed dynamical mechanisms in summer.
The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation

Researchers conduct a comprehensive review of research on summer weather stalling, focusing on the influence of Arctic amplification and how it could interact with other factors influenced by climate change.

Subsurface ocean heat content anomalies regressed onto low-pass filtered time series of eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. The black boxes outline the eastern (10°–20°S, 100°–120°E) and western (10°–20°S, 50°–90°E) Indian Ocean, showing the east-west dipole structure
Pacific influences decadal Indian Ocean heat content via two distinct mechanisms

In two recent papers, Jin and coauthors investigated how decadal variations of subsurface ocean heat content (50–300 m) in the Indian Ocean respond to conditions in the Pacific region.

simple linear model accounting for changes in drying ratio and mean source distance (MSD)
Global patterns of evaporation and precipitation leave a traceable isotopic fingerprint

A new study shows that a simple linear model that accounts for changes in mean source distance, as well as the local drying ratio, can successfully replicate water isotopic variations in space and time.

The Observational Large Ensemble (Obs-LE) can be used to assess the relative roles of internal variability and anthropogenic influence on 50-year trends in (a-b) temperature and (c-d) precipitation over land.
Developing Observational Large Ensembles for climate variability

Researchers have developed a complementary approach to creating ensembles for seasonal-average temperature and precipitation over land that can also be used to study internal variability.

Response in wintertime surface air temperature (color shadings) and surface wind (vectors) to imposed RCP8.5 sea ice loss over the Barents-Kara sea (BKS)
“Warm Arctic–Cold Siberia” pattern: The importance of the stratospheric circulation

A new Arctic and mid-latitude interaction study highlights the necessity to use stratosphere-resolving models when identifying the warm Arctic–cold Siberia pattern.

Can models capture the seasonality of the recent expansion of the tropics?

Observed Southern Hemisphere summer and fall trends of tropical expansion are well captured in model simulations of the late 20th and early 21st centuries, consistent with the roles of increasing greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion in driving poleward circulation shifts during these seasons.

Welcome to the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program

Daily summaries from the subseasonal to decadal conference

Lisa Goddard, Columbia University, presenting at the conference

Over 300 scientists kicked off the International Conferences on Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction with the latest research results from the weather and climate community. Read the daily summaries for a few highlights from the meeting. 

Live stream the International Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction Conference

Boulder, CO

If you are unable to join in person, the International Conferences on Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction will be live streamed. The meetings will take place from September 17–21, with concurrent sessions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) and season to decadal (S2D) prediction themes. 

Call for new US CLIVAR working groups

Arctic mid-latitude poster session

Requests are now being accepted for up to one new US CLIVAR-sponsored working group for 2019. Submissions are encouraged from the US climate science community. All documents must be submitted by October 12, 2018. The next call for working groups will be in September 2019.

Project Office welcomes Jeff Becker

Jeff Becker joined the US CLIVAR Project Office in June 2018 as the new meetings manager. Jeff brings over fifteen years of experience in managing meetings and events for trade associations and is excited to work with our community. 

Ocean Carbon Hot Spots workshop report

A group gathers to discuss research on the beach by MBARI

The Ocean Carbon Hot Spots workshop brought together the research community studying western boundary current regions to discuss gaps in understanding, observing and modeling challenges, and newly available tools. This report synthesizes the workshop and identifies recommendations for next steps. 

Variations, Summer 2018: Uncertainty in climate projections

variations cover

Uncertainty is an inherent part of science and is fundamental to scientific progress. The articles in this edition shed light on some ways in which uncertainties in climate projections can be assessed, managed, and communicated.

Fall 2018 call for US CLIVAR-supported workshops

Ocean carbon hot spots workshop

Requests are now being accepted for US CLIVAR-sponsored workshops. Submissions are encouraged from the US climate science community and their collaborators. All documents must be submitted by September 28. The next call for workshops will be in spring 2019. 

AMOC meeting presentations online

Word cloud for AMOC

The 2018 International AMOC Science Meeting drew over 100 scientists working on overturning circulation research and its influence on weather, climate, and ecosystems. Oral and poster presentations from the meeting are available online.