How short-term Arctic warming can lead to delayed stratospheric circulation responses

A recent study uses large ensembles of an idealized general circulation model to demonstrate how episodic surface warming in the Arctic can lead to delayed responses in the stratosphere that persist for about two months, even in the absence of stationary waves.

Estimates of interannual variability from new and published coral δ18O records from the northern Line Islands
Coral reconstructions of central tropical Pacific climate suggest a 25% increase in recent El Niño Southern Oscillation intensity

Comparison of the fossil corals samples with modern corals showed that the recent ENSO intensification was quite apparent – the most recent 20 years was stronger than almost all 20-year periods measured over the entire preindustrial fossil coral dataset.

Swiftly shifting southward: CO2-forced tropical widening is larger in the Southern Hemisphere

Under exclusive CO2 forcing, climate models predicted twice as much Hadley cell expansion in the Southern Hemisphere as in the Northern Hemisphere. The finding was robust across models and all seasons except boreal fall.

Reconstruction of the weather on February 10, 1936 at 12 UTC
Reconstructing the past 200 years of global weather

A new version 3 of the NOAA-CIRES-DOE 20th Century Reanalysis (20CRv3) recreates a 180-year history of temperature, precipitation, winds, humidity, and many other variables from below the land surface to the top of the atmosphere.

A two-layer network model for Bayesian inference of the coupled regional flood duration scaling and atmospheric dynamic scaling of the flood duration.
Governance of Long-Duration Floods

A Bayesian network inference model was developed to account for and predict the likelihood of floods of various durations using physics informed predictors. The model provides a deeper understanding of the nexus of antecedent flow regime, atmospheric blocking, and moisture transport/release mechanisms.

Schematic representation of the atmospheric “non-frontal” component
New perspectives regarding Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Extension influence on the atmosphere

New research illustrates that the key to recognizing the influence of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Extension on the seasonal mean and longer-term climate is through a proper understanding of how the ocean influences atmospheric fronts.

Welcome to the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program

February Newsgram

2020 February Newsgram

The latest news, meetings, jobs, and funding opportunities for the climate science community in our February Newsgram.

Joint Variations/Exchanges edition on Sources and Sinks of Ocean Mesoscale Eddy Energy

Sources and Sinks of Ocean Mesoscale Eddy Energy cover

The 2020 winter edition of Exchanges and Variations, joint between International and US CLIVAR, is themed "Sources and Sinks of Ocean Mesoscale Eddy Energy," with guest editors Baylor Fox-Kemper, Brown University and Simon Marsland, CSIRO.

2020 US AMOC Science Team Meeting

US AMOC Science Team Meeting

Save the date! The US AMOC Science Team Meeting will be held in Woods Hole on September 14-17, 2020. Registration and abstract submissions coming soon.

Workshop on Societally-Relevant Multi-Year Climate Predictions

Draft agenda is now available for the Multi-Year Workshop