Session III: Weather and climate extremes in the Americas
The ability to predict severe weather has great societal value. It is well known that individual tornado outbreaks are predictable only several hours in advance. However, it may be possible to predict the seasonal changes in the environmental conditions that support tornado outbreaks. Essentially, we ask “can we predict changes in the likelihood of tornedo outbreak?” Here we use the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 4.0 (CCSM4) forecasts from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), and observational estimates from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) for the period 1982-2011. This study shows that the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), as the background state that is a more favorable condition for high impact weather in the United States, is strongly correlated with sea surface temperature in the Gulf of Mexico during the peak seasons of tornado outbreaks. In contrast, no contemporaneous relations are found with El Niño Southern Oscillation.
Comments
Suz Tolwinski-Ward
September 2, 2015 - 6:47am
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Given recent results from
eunsil Jung
September 3, 2015 - 11:22am
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First question: Thanks for
(According to Lee et al (2013) doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00128.1), TransNino pattern is shown during the top 10 tornado active years (April-May), with no consistent El-Nino or La-Nina years (Table 3))
For the second question, it is a great question. We could encourage people to well-prepare for the tornado in the year of warmer SST in the Gulf of Mexico.
Vasu Misra
September 2, 2015 - 2:52pm
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Very interesting work. Shows
eunsil jung
September 3, 2015 - 11:23am
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Yes they do. We looked the
Lakshmi Krishna...
September 11, 2015 - 9:32am
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ENSO has significant
eunsil jung
September 11, 2015 - 10:59am
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I think, this is because the
eunsil jung
September 11, 2015 - 10:55am
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I think, this is because the
eunsil jung
September 11, 2015 - 11:00am
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Sorry this is a reply for the
Sang-Ki Lee
September 11, 2015 - 1:00pm
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I understand that Nino3.4(MJJ
eunsil jung
September 11, 2015 - 1:04pm
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Thanks for your suggestion.
Anonymous
September 11, 2015 - 1:32pm
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I also see a dipole pattern