Session III: Weather and climate extremes in the Americas
Louisiana State University-Geography and Anthropology
Hurricanes threaten the United States every year. It is important to quantify the risk of these events for emergency managers. Extreme value statistics are used to model hurricane characteristics at different locations. Utilizing a spatial tessellation across the North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico provides insight into the local risk of hurricane strikes. Parameters from the extreme value model are mapped across space to visualize patterns. Sea surface temperature is included as a covariate in a geographically weighted regression model with each parameter. It is found that as sea surface temperatures increase, the expected hurricane wind speed for a given return period also increases.
Comments
Suz Tolwinski-Ward
September 2, 2015 - 6:32am
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Hi Jill, I don't have
Jill Trepanier
September 9, 2015 - 8:22am
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Hi Suz! Thanks for the
Jill Trepanier
September 9, 2015 - 8:22am
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Hi Suz! Thanks for the
Suz Tolwinski-Ward
September 11, 2015 - 8:17am
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Thanks for the reply, Jill.
The issue you bring up about sensitivity of return levels to threshold choice definitely seems like a critical one to explore further, given the implied range in return levels you describe. I'm looking forward to the paper you have planned on this! I agree that connecting the statistical upper bound with MPI would make a pretty cool project-- let's be in touch about this!
Jill Trepanier
September 11, 2015 - 8:31am
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Thanks, Suz. Yes, I see now,
Ángel G. Muñoz
September 11, 2015 - 8:39am
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Hi Jill, nice poster!
Are you using SSTs for the entire planet or are you considering particular regions/indices? How robust are the results when you change the domain? I think this question is related to Suz's. Thanks
Jill Trepanier
September 11, 2015 - 8:47am
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Hi Angel! Thank you! SSTs are
Vasu Misra
September 11, 2015 - 12:43pm
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Hi Jill,
Nice work. I am naively interpreting your results to be similar to computing maximum potential intensity variations with SST. If that naivety is indeed reasonably okay, then I am wondering if upper ocean heat content would be a better metric than SST as there are a few papers from Taiwan which claim that maximum potential intensity based OHC is far more reasonable than using SST.
Jill Trepanier
September 11, 2015 - 12:46pm
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Hi Vasu, Thanks for your
Christian Dominguez
September 11, 2015 - 2:33pm
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Hi Jill,
Good poster!. By any chance, have you analyzed other environmental variables as humidity, vorticity, wind shear (which seems to be one of the most important factors to intensify TCs over the Caribbean Region) and Ocean Heat Content (OHC)?. The intensifying process could be very complicated to analyze because sometimes a lot of ingredients are interacting at the same time.
Jill Trepanier
September 14, 2015 - 9:44am
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Hi Christian,
Thank you for your question. I have not assessed those other variables, but you may have noted that one of the other commenters also thought OHC would be a great idea. I appreciate your recommendations and I look forward to incorporating those into my model as I move forward with my research.