Predictability: A Continuing Saga of Controversies

Arun
Kumar
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Estimating predictability, and upper limits on prediction skill for the observable system, continues to be an area of considerable discussion, and estimates of predictability are far from being settled. Origins of controversies in the estimation of predictability arise both from limitations in our understanding of the sources of predictability and their simulations by climate models, and also from our ability to estimate contribution of random noise on forecast outcomes. This presentation summarizes practical reasons for the need for quantifying predictability estimates, and various methodologies for estimating predictability.
Abstract file