Decadal Predictability Resources

Working Group Publications

US CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group, 2011: Distinguishing the roles of natural and anthropogenically forced decadal climate variability: Implications for prediction, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., Vol.92, No. 2. pp. 141-156

Prospectus of the Decadal Predictability Working Group (pdf)

Additional References

1. Decadal Predictability

Collins M, and co-authors, 2006. Interannual to decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic: A Multi-model ensemble study. J. Climate, 19, 1195-1203.

Boer, G. J., 2008. Decadal potential predictability of 21st century climate. Climate Dynamics, submitted. 

Boer, G.J., 2000: A study of atmosphere-ocean predictability on long-time scales. Climate Dynamics, 16, 469-477

Boer, G. J., and S. J. Lambert, 2008: Multi-model decadal potential predictability of precipitation and temperature. GRL, 35, doi:10.1029/2008GL033234

Boer, G. J., 2009: Changes in interannual variability and decadal potential predictability under global waming, J. Climate, to appear.

Hawkins, E. and R. Sutton, 2008a: The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., submitted.

Hawkins, E. and R. Sutton, 2008b: Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: estimation of optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling. J. Climate, submitted.

Hurrell, J., G.A. Meehl, D. Bader, T. Delworth, B. Kirtman, H.-L Pan and B. Wielicki, 2008: Climate system prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., submitted.

Kirtman, B. P., and D. Min, 2008: Multi-model ensemble ENSO prediction with CCSM and CFS. Mon. Wea. Rev., submitted.

Keenlyside N, M Latif, J Jungclaus, L Kornblueh, E Roeckner, 2008. Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic Sector, Nature, 453, 84-88.

Latif, M., M. Collins, H. Pohlmann, and N. Keenlyside, 2006: A review of predictability studies of Atlantic sector climate on decadal time scales. J. Climate, 19, 5971-5987.

Lee, T.C.K., F.W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and M. Tsao, 2006: Evidence of decadal climate prediction skill resulting from changes in anthropogenic forcing. J. Clim., 19, 5305–5318.

Meehl, G.A., and co-authors, 2009: Decadal Prediction: Can it be skillful? Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., submitted.

Motizuki, T., M. Ishii, M. Kimoto, Y. Chikamoto, M. Watanabe, T. Nozawa, T. Sakamoto, H. Shiogama, T. Awaji, N. Sugiura, T. Toyoda, S. Yasunaka, H. Tatebe, and M. Mori, 2008: Hindcasting the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in relevance to a near-term climate prediction. submitted.

Murphy, J.M., B.B.B. Booth, M. Collins, G.R. Harris, D.M.H. Sexton and M.J. Webb, 2007: A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 1993-2028.

Pierce, D. W., T. P. Barnett, R. Tokmakian, A. Smtner, M. Maltrud, J. Lynsey, and A. Craig, 2004: The ACPI project, element 1: Initializing a coupled climate model from observed initial conditions. Clim. Change, 62, 13-28.

Pohlmann, H., J. Jungclaus, J. Marotzke, A. Köhl, and D. Stammer, 2008: Improving Predictability through the Initialization of a Coupled Climate Model with Global Oceanic Reanalysis. J. Climate, submitted.

Seager R, and co-authors, 2007. Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arrive climate in Southwestern North America. Science, 316, 1181-1184.

Seager, R., A. R. Karspeck, M. A. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. Kaplan, B. Kerman, and J. Velez, 2004: Predicting pacific decadal variability. Earth's Climate: The Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, C. Wang, S.-P. Xie, and J. A. Carton, Eds., American Geophysical Union, Geophysical Monograph 147, 105-120.

Schneider, E. K., B. Huang, Z. Zhu, D. G. DeWitt, J. L. Kinter, B. Kirtman, and J. Shukla, 1999: Ocean data assimilation, initialization and predictions of ENSO with a coupled GCM. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1187-1207.

Shukla, J., 1984: Predictability of Time Averages: Part II. The influence of boundary forcings. Problems and prospects in long and medium range weather forecasting. Eds. D. M. Burridge and E. Kallen. Springer-Verlag, 273 pp.

Shukla, J., R. Hagedorn, B. Hoskins, J. Kinter, J. Marotzke, M. Miller, T. Palmer, and J. Slingo, 2009: Revolution in climate prediction is both necessary and possible: A declaration at the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., in press.

Smith D, S Cusack, A Colman, A. Folland, G Harris, J Murphy, 2007. Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global circulation model. Science, 317, 796-799.

Stockdale, T. N. 1997: Coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts in the presence of climate drift. Mon. Wea Rev., 125, 809–818.

Stott, P.A., and J.A. Kettleborough, 2002: Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of 21st century temperature rise. Nature, 416, 723–726.

Sugiura N., T. Awaji, S. Masuda, T. Mochizuki, T. Toyoda, T. Miyama, H. Igarashi, Y. Ishikawa, 2008: Development of a four-dimensional variational coupled data assimilation system for enhanced analysis and prediction of seasonal to interannual climate variations. J. Geophys. Res., 113, C10017, doi:10.1029/2008JC004741.

Tang, Y., Z. Deng, X. Zhou, Y. Cheng, and D. Chen, 2008: Interdecadal Variation of ENSO Predictability in Multiple Models. J. Climate, 21, 4811-4833.

Tebaldi, C., and R. Knutti, 2007: The use of multi-model ensembles in probabilistic climate projections. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 2053-2076.

Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3297-3319.

2. Decadal-to-Multidecadal Atlantic Variability

Dai, A., A. Hu, G. A. Meehl, W. M. Washington, and W. G. Strand, 2005: Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled general circulation model: Unforced variations versus forced changes. J. Climate, 18, 3270-3293.

Danabasoglu, G., 2008: On multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). J. Climate, in press.

Eden, C. and T. Jung, 2001: North Atlantic interdecadal variability: Oceanic response to the North Atlantic Oscillation (1865-1997). J. Climate, 14, 676-691.

Goldenberg S, C Landsea, A Mestas-Nuñez, and W Gray, 2001. The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications. Science, 293, 474-479.

Griffies, S. M., and K. Bryan, 1997: Predictability of North Atlantic multidecadal climate variability. Science, 275, 181-184.

Knight, J.R., CK Folland, and AA Scaife, 2006. Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Geophy Res Lett, 33, L17706, doi:10.1029/2006GL026242.

Kushnir, Y., 1994: Interdecadal variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature and associated atmospheric conditions. J. Climate, 7, 141-157.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, P. Chang, N. H. Naik, J. Miller, and W. Hazeleger, 2001: Looking for the role of the ocean in tropical Atlantic decadal climate variability. J. Climate, 14, 638-655.

Sutton, R. W., and D. L. R. Hodson, 2005: Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate. Science, 309, 115-118.

Ting, M., Y. Kushnir, R. Seager, C. Li, 2009: Forced and internal 20th Century SST trends in the North Atlantic. J. Climate, in press Abstract PDF (2.50M)

Zhang R and T Delworth, 2006. Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17712, doi:10.1029/2006GL026267.

Zhang, R., T. L. Delworth, and I. M. Held, 2007: Can the Atlantic Ocean drive the observed multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature? Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L02709.

3. Decadal-to-Multidecadal Pacific Variability

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, and J. W. Hurrell, 2004: Pacific Interdecadal climate variability: Linkages between the tropics and the north Pacific during boreal winter since 1900. J. Climate, 17, 3109-3124.

Meehl, G. A., and A. Hu, 2006: Megadroughts in the Indian monsoon region and southwest North America and a mechanism for associated multi-decadal Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies Journal of Climate, 19, 1605–1623.

Meehl, G. A., A. Hu, and B.D. Santer, 2008: The mid-1970s climate shift in the Pacific and the relative roles of forced versus inherent decadal variability, J. Climate, in press.

Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, K. Matthes, F. Sassi, and H. van Loon, 2008: Additive mechanisms amplify the Pacific climate system response to solar forcing. Science, submitted.

Power, S., T. Casey, C. Folland, A. Colman, and V. Mehta, 1999: Interdecadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Clim. Dyn., 15, 319--324.

Tourre, Y. M., Y. Kushnir, and W. B. White, 1999: Evolution of interdecadal variability in sea level pressure, sea surface temperature, and upper ocean temperature over the Pacific Ocean. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 29, 1528-1541.

Trenberth, K.E., and J.W. Hurrell, 1994: Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific. Clim. Dyn., 9, 303—319.

Vikhliaev, Y., B. Kirtman, and P. Schopf, 2007: Decadal North Pacific Bred Vectors in a Coupled GCM. J. Climate, 20, 5744–5764.

4. General Decadal-to-Multidecadal Variability

Delworth, T. L., and M. E. Mann, 2000: Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Climate Dynamics, 16, 661-676.

Delworth, T., S. Manabe, and R. J. Stouffer, 1993: Interdecadal variations of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 6, 1993-2011.

Domingues, C. M., J. A. Church, N. J. White, P. J. Gleckler, S. E. Wijffels, P. M. Barker and J. R. Dunn, 2008, Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise, Nature, 453, doi:10.1038/nature07080

Dong, B., and R. T. Sutton, 2005: Mechanism of interdecadal thermohaline circulation variability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. J. Climate, 18, 1117-1135. 

McCabe G, M Palecki, J Betancourt, 2004. Pacific and Atlantic influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the US. PNAS, 101, 4136-4141.

White, W., and D. Cayan, 1998: Quasi-periodicity and global symmetries in interdecadal upper ocean temperature variability, J. Geophys. Res., 103(C10), 21335-21354.

5. Trend

Deser, Clara. Adam S. Phillips, M. Alexander, 2010: Twentieth Century Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Trends Revisited, Geophy. Res. Lett., submitted.

Karoly, D.J., and Q. Wu, 2005. Detection of regional surface temperature trends. J. Climate, 18, 4337–4343.

Knutson, T.R., T.L. Delworth, K.W. Dixon, and R.J. Stouffer, 1999. Model assessment of regional surface temperature trends (1949-1997). J. Geophys. Res., 104, 30981–30996.

Meehl, G. A., W. M. Washington, W. D. Collins, J. M. Arblaster, A. Hu, L. E. Buja, W. G. Strand, and H. Teng, 2005: How much more global warming and sea level rise? Science, 307, 1769–1772.

Zhang, X., F.W. Zwiers, G.C. Hegerl, F.H. Lambert, N.P Gillett, S. Solomon, P.A. Stott, T. Nozawa, 2007: Detection of human infuence on twentieth-century precipitation trends. Nature, 448, 461-465, doi:10.1038/nature06025.

6. Model Uncertainties

Branstator, Grant, and H. Teng, 2010: Two Limits of Initial-value Decadal Predictability in a CGCM, Journal of Climate, submitted.

Doblas-Reyes, F.J, A. Weisheimer, M. Déqué, N. Keenlyside, M. MacVean, J. Murphy, P. Rogel, D. Smith and T.N. Palmer, 2009: Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts. In preparation.

Teng, Haiyan and Grant Branstator, 2010: Initial-value Predictability of Prominent Modes of North Pacific Subsurface Temperature in a CGCM, Climate Dynamics, revised.