US Climate Variability and Predictability Program

Drought Working Group Reference List

Andreadis, K. M., and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2006: Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, 4.

Andreadis, K. M., E. A. Clark, A. W. Wood, A. F. Hamlet, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005: Twentieth-century drought in the conterminous United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 6, 985-1001.


Bark, D., 1978: History of American Droughts. North American Droughts, N. Rosenberg, Ed., Westview Press, 9-23.

Barlow, M., S. Nigam, and E. H. Berbery, 2001: ENSO, Pacific decadal variability, and US summertime precipitation, drought, and stream flow. Journal of Climate, 14, 2105-2128.

Biasutti, M., and A. Giannini, 2006: Robust Sahel drying in response to late 20th century forcings. Geophysical Research Letters, 33.

Borchert, J. R., 1971: DUST BOWL IN 1970S. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 61, 1-22.

Burke, E. J., S. J. Brown, and N. Christidis, 2006: Modeling the recent evolution of global drought and projections for the twenty-first century with the hadley centre climate model. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 7, 1113-1125.

Cayan, D. R., M. D. Dettinger, H. F. Diaz, and N. E. Graham, 1998: Decadal variability of precipitation over western North America. Journal of Climate, 11, 3148-3166.

Charney, J. G., 1975: DYNAMICS OF DESERTS AND DROUGHT IN SAHEL. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 101, 193-202.

Cook, E. R., R. Seager, M. A. Cane, and D. W. Stahle, 2007: North American Drought: Reconstructions, Causes, and Consequences. Earth Science Reviews.

Cook, E. R., C. A. Woodhouse, C. M. Eakin, D. M. Meko, and D. W. Stahle, 2004: Long-term aridity changes in the western United States. Science, 306, 1015-1018.

Costa, M. H., and J. A. Foley, 2000: Combined effects of deforestation and doubled atmospheric CO2 concentrations on the climate of Amazonia. Journal of Climate, 13, 18-34.

Cox, P. M., R. A. Betts, C. D. Jones, S. A. Spall, and I. J. Totterdell, 2000: Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature, 408, 184-187.

Cox, P. M., R. A. Betts, M. Collins, P. P. Harris, C. Huntingford, and C. D. Jones, 2004: Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 137-156.

Dai, A. G., 2006: Precipitation characteristics in eighteen coupled climate models. Journal of Climate, 19, 4605-4630.

Diaz, H. F., 1983: DROUGHT IN THE UNITED-STATES - SOME ASPECTS OF MAJOR DRY AND WET PERIODS IN THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED-STATES, 1895-1981. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 22, 3-16.

Easterling, W., and M. Apps, 2005: Assessing the consequences of climate change for food and forest resources: A view from the IPCC. Climatic Change, 70, 165-189.

Felch, R. E., 1978: Drought : Characteristics and assessment. North American Droughts, N. Rosenberg, Ed., Westview Press, 25-42.

Findell, K. L., and E. A. B. Eltahir, 1997: An analysis of the soil moisture-rainfall feedback, based on direct observations from Illinois. Water Resources Research, 33, 725-735.

Giannini, A., R. Saravanan, and P. Chang, 2003: Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science, 302, 1027-1030.

Gregory, J. M., J. F. B. Mitchell, and A. J. Brady, 1997: Summer drought in northern midlatitudes in a time-dependent CO2 climate experiment. Journal of Climate, 10, 662-686.

Held, I. M., T. L. Delworth, J. Lu, K. L. Findell, and T. R. Knutson, 2005: Simulation of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102, 17891-17896.

Herweijer, C., and R. Seager, 2006: The Global Footprint of persistent extra-tropical drought in the instrumental era. Int. J. Climatology.

Herweijer, C., R. Seager, and E. R. Cook, 2006: North American droughts of the mid to late nineteenth century: a history, simulation and implication for Mediaeval drought. Holocene, 16, 159-171.

Herweijer, C., R. Seager, E. R. Cook, and J. Emilie-Geay, 2007: North American Droughts of the last Millennium from a Gridded Network of Tree-Ring data.Journal of Climate.

Hoerling, M., and A. Kumar, 2003: The perfect ocean for drought. Science, 299, 691-694.

Hong, S. Y., and E. Kalnay, 2000: Role of sea surface temperature and soil-moisture feedback in the 1998 Oklahoma-Texas drought. Nature, 408, 842-844.

Huang, H. P., R. Seager, and Y. Kushnir, 2005: The 1976/77 transition in precipitation over the Americas and the influence of tropical sea surface temperature.Climate Dynamics, 24, 721-740.

Karspeck, A. R., R. Seager, and M. A. Cane, 2004: Predictability of tropical Pacific decadal variability in an intermediate model. Journal of Climate, 17, 2842-2850.

Kumar, A., F. L. Yang, L. Goddard, and S. Schubert, 2004: Differing trends in the tropical surface temperatures and precipitation over land and oceans. Journal of Climate, 17, 653-664.

Kutzbach, J. E., J. W. Williams, and S. J. Vavrus, 2005: Simulated 21st century changes in regional water balance of the Great Lakes region and links to changes in global temperature and poleward moisture transport. Geophysical Research Letters, 32.

Li, W. H., R. Fu, and R. E. Dickinson, 2006: Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 111.

Lyon, B., 2004: The strength of El Nino and the spatial extent of tropical drought. Geophysical Research Letters, 31.

Lyon, B., and R. M. Dole, 1995: A DIAGNOSTIC COMPARISON OF THE 1980 AND 1988 US SUMMER HEAT WAVE-DROUGHTS. Journal of Climate,8, 1658-1675.

Lyon, B., and A. G. Barnston, 2005: ENSO and the spatial extent of interannual precipitation extremes in tropical land areas. Journal of Climate, 18, 5095-5109.

Lyon, B., N. Christie-Blick, and Y. Gluzberg, 2005: Water shortages, development, and drought in Rockland County, New York. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 41, 1457-1469.

Manabe, S., R. T. Wetherald, P. C. D. Milly, T. L. Delworth, and R. J. Stouffer, 2004: Century-scale change in water availability: CO2-quadrupling experiment.Climatic Change, 64, 59-76.

Meehl, G. A., and A. X. Hu, 2006: Megadroughts in the Indian monsoon region and southwest North America and a mechanism for associated multidecadal Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Journal of Climate, 19, 1605-1623.

Miles, E. L., A. K. Snover, A. F. Hamlet, B. Callahan, and D. Fluharty, 2000: Pacific northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 36, 399-420.

Milly, P. C. D., K. A. Dunne, and A. V. Vecchia, 2005: Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature, 438, 347-350.

Namais, J., 1955: Some meteorological aspects of drought with special reference to the summers of 1952-1954 over the United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 83, 7.

Neelin, J. D., M. Munnich, H. Su, J. E. Meyerson, and C. E. Holloway, 2006: Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103, 6110-6115.

Nohara, D., A. Kitoh, M. Hosaka, and T. Oki, 2006: Impact of climate change on river discharge projected by multimodel ensemble. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 7, 1076-1089.

Parmesan, C., and G. Yohe, 2003: A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37-42.

Pederson, G. T., S. T. Gray, D. B. Fagre, and L. J. Graumlich, 2006: Long-duration drought variability and impacts on ecosystem services: A case study from Glacier National Park, Montana. Earth Interactions, 10.

Phillips, T. J., and P. J. Gleckler, 2006: Evaluation of continental precipitation in 20th century climate simulations: The utility of multimodel statistics. Water Resources Research, 42.

Rasmussen, J. B. T., V. J. Polyak, and Y. Asmerom, 2006: Evidence for Pacific-modulated precipitation variability during the late Holocene from the southwestern USA. Geophysical Research Letters, 33.

Rind, D., R. Goldberg, J. Hansen, C. Rosenzweig and R. Ruedy, 1990: Potential evapotranspiration and the likelihood of future drought.  J. Geophys. Res., 95, 9983-10,005.

Rosenberg, N., 1978: North American Droughts. Westview Press, 177 pp.

Ruiz-Barradas, A., and S. Nigam, 2006: IPCC's twentieth-century climate simulations: Varied representations of north American hydroclimate variability.Journal of Climate, 19, 4041-4058.

Schneider, S. H., 2001: What is 'dangerous' climate change? Nature, 411, 17-19.

Schneider, S. H., and M. D. Mastrandrea, 2005: Probabilistic assessment "dangerous" climate change and emissions pathways. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102, 15728-15735.

Scholze, M., W. Knorr, N. W. Arnell, and I. C. Prentice, 2006: A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103, 13116-13120.

Schubert, S. D., M. J. Suarez, P. J. Pegion, R. D. Koster, and J. T. Bacmeister, 2004a: Causes of long-term drought in the US Great Plains. Journal of Climate,17, 485-503.

---, 2004b: On the cause of the 1930s Dust Bowl. Science, 303, 1855-1859.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, C. Herweijer, N. Naik, and J. Velez, 2005a: Modeling of tropical forcing of persistent droughts and pluvials over western North America: 1856-2000. Journal of Climate, 18, 4065-4088.

Seager, R., N. Graham, C. Herweijer, A. L. Gordon, Y. Kushnir, and E. Cook, 2007: Blueprints for Medieval hydroclimate. Quat. Sci. Rev.

Seager, R., N. Harnik, W. A. Robinson, Y. Kushnir, M. Ting, H. P. Huang, and J. Velez, 2005b: Mechanisms of ENSO-forcing of hemispherically symmetric precipitation variability. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 131, 1501-1527.

Seager, R., and Coauthors, 2004: Predictin pacific decadal variability. In Earth Climate: The ocean-atmosphere interaction, C. Wang, S.-P. Xie, and J. A. Carton, Eds., American Geophysical Union, 105-120.

Swenson, S. C., and P. C. D. Milly, 2006: Climate model biases in seasonality of continental water storage revealed by satellite gravimetry. Water Resources Research, 42.

Takle, E. S., M. Jha, and C. J. Anderson, 2005: Hydrological cycle in the upper Mississippi River basin: 20th century simulations by multiple GCMs.Geophysical Research Letters, 32.

Wang, G., 2006: Agricultural drought in a future climate: Results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment. Clim. Dyn., 25, 739-753.

Wang, H. L., and K. M. Lau, 2006: Atmospheric hydrological cycle in the tropics in twentieth century coupled climate simulations. International Journal of Climatology, 26, 655-678.

Wetherald, R. T., and S. Manabe, 2002: Simulation of hydrologic changes associated with global warming. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,107.

---, 2003: Simulation of hydrologic changes associated with global warming (vol 107, pg 4379, 2003). Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 108.

Zeng, N., 2003: Drought in the Sahel. Science, 302, 999-1000.

Zeng, N., J. D. Neelin, K. M. Lau, and C. J. Tucker, 1999: Enhancement of interdecadal climate variability in the Sahel by vegetation interaction. Science, 286, 1537-1540.