Large Ensemble Working Group
The US CLIVAR Working Group on Large “Initial-Condition” Earth System Model Ensembles (LEs) was formed in March 2018. The intent of the working group is to spearhead a dedicated effort across the national and international climate communities to advance progress on identifying anthropogenic influences on weather and climate amidst the “noise” of internal variability. The timeliness and cross-cutting nature of the problem, together with promising new observational and modeling approaches, means this working group has an unprecedented opportunity to make substantive progress on this tractable issue.
The main objectives of the working group are:
- Foster exchange of ideas relevant to LEs across disciplines (i.e., atmosphere, ocean, land, biogeochemistry).
- Contribute a peer-reviewed article containing a statement of the problem and its importance, results from a comparison of existing LEs from five different models, a proposed design of an LE-MIP, and opportunities for further progress.
- Lead the LE-MIP and dissemination of model output.
- Design an “Observational-LE.”
| Clara Deser (co-chair) | NCAR |
| Keith Rodgers (co-chair) | IBS Center for Climate Physics, Pusan National University, South Korea |
| Toby Ault | Cornell U. |
| Tom Delworth | NOAA GFDL |
| Pedro DiNezio | U. Texas-Austin |
| Arlene Fiore | Columbia U. |
| Claude Frankignoul | U. Pierre et Marie Curie, France |
| John Fyfe | CCMA, Canada |
| Dan Horton | Northwestern U. |
| Jennifer Kay | U. Colorado |
| Reto Knutti | ETH, Switzerland |
| Flavio Lehner | NCAR |
| Nikki Lovenduski | U. Colorado |
| Jochem Marotzke | MPI, Germany |
| Karen McKinnon | U. California-Los Angeles |
| Shoshiro Minobe | Hokkaido U., Japan |
| Jim Randerson | U. California-Irvine |
| James Screen | U. Exeter |
| Isla Simpson | NCAR |
| Mingfang Ting | Columbia U. |