by Eric Maloney
Could MJO Predictions Help Forecast Periods of Enhanced Hurricane Activity?
The MJO produces a strong modulation of tropical cyclone activity in many regions of the tropics, including the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and east Pacific Ocean. The MJO is associated with variations in sea surface temperature, organized precipitation, low-level winds, vertical wind shear, and atmospheric humidity and temperature, important factors in tropical cyclone formation and maintenance. Forecasts of the MJO at 2-3 week lead times might aid in forecasting periods of enhanced tropical cyclone formation.
Tropical cyclogenesis preferentially occurs during certain phases of the MJO. Figure 1 shows the composite eastward propagation of Northern Hemisphere summer velocity potential and tropical cyclone genesis locations associated with the MJO during 1979-1997 (adapted from Higgins and Shi ). Green areas indicate anomalous upper level divergence, where precipitation is enhanced and tropical cyclogenesis preferentially occurs. Brown areas indicate anomalous upper level convergence, where precipitation and tropical cyclogenesis are suppressed. One notable feature is the enhancement of tropical cyclogenesis in the Americas during periods of enhanced upper level divergence and enhanced precipitation (e.g. Day 0 and Day +5 of Figure 1). For example, an analysis during 1949-1997 indicates that the MJO strongly modulates Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea hurricanes and tropical storms (Figure 2, adapted from Maloney and Hartmann 2000). Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea hurricanes are four times more likely to occur when the MJO is producing enhanced precipitation and divergent upper level winds than when precipitation is suppressed and upper level winds are convergent. The modulation of major hurricanes (Categories 3-5) by the MJO is even more pronounced. Similarly, when the divergent (convergent) phase of the MJO is located over the Indian or west Pacific Ocean, typhoon activity in increeased (decreased).
Given the evidence that the MJO is predictable with 2-3 week lead-times, periods of enhanced or suppressed hurricane activity may be predicted at similar lead times. Such knowledge would have implications for public safety, energy production, recreation/tourism, among other interests.
Two avenues of further investigation include: 1) understanding how the MJO modulates hurricane activity, and 2) determining whether 2-3 week predictions of the MJO can be used to predict periods of enhanced tropical cyclone activity.
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