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Workshop on Confronting Earth System Model Trends with Observations: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Agenda

All times in MST

*Virtual

Time Agenda Presenter Presentation file

Workshop registration and breakfast

Introduction and welcome

Session 1: Overview
(Invited) Subtle lessons from the art of model-observation confrontations* Gavin Schmidt, NASA GISS
(Invited) Challenges in comparing observed and model-simulated climate trends on regional scales Clara Deser, NCAR

Open discussion

Session 2: Trends in the Mean State
(Invited) How the good (global-mean surface temperature) and the bad (surface temperature patterns and top of the atmosphere radiative imbalance) conspire to the ugly (radiative feedbacks) Maria Rugenstein, Colorado State University
Persistent differences in simulated and observed tropical tropospheric warming Stephen Po-Chedley, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Colder eastern equatorial Pacific and stronger Walker circulation in the past 30 years: an ocean thermostat versus natural variability in observations and climate models Alexey Fedorov, Yale University and LOCEAN/IPSL/Sorbonne University

Break
The SAM and Southern Ocean SST: Consistency and discrepancy between models and observations across timescales Yue Dong, University of Colorado Boulder/CIRES
Reconciling modeled and observed trends in the contrast between precipitation in tropical wet and dry regions* Andrew Schurer, University of Edinburgh

Open discussion

Lightning talks for virtual posters

Lunch

Poster session 1

Continuation of Session 2: Trends in the Mean State
(Invited) Historic large-scale atmospheric flow changes in models and observations Rei Chemke, Weizmann Institute
Revisiting the observation-model discrepancy in Southern Hemisphere winter storm track trends Joonsuk Kang, The University of Chicago
Drivers of model-observation discrepancies in Southern Ocean SSTs and Antarctic sea ice trends* Lettie Roach, Columbia University and NASA GISS
Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean model biases and trends in ocean-sea ice models driven by historic atmospheric forcing Elizabeth Maroon, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Open discussion  

Break  

Breakout Session 1  (virtual and in-person)

End of day for virtual
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Networking event 
Time Agenda Presenter Presentation file

Breakfast

Alternate Breakout Session 1 (virtual only)

Day 1 review

Session 3: Trends in Variability and Extremes
(Invited) Addressing challenges in identifying trends in extremes to better compare models and observations Karen McKinnon, UCLA
Models and observations agree on strong reductions of midlatitude cold extremes Russell Blackport, Environment and Climate Change Canada
Increases in extreme precipitation over the northeast US using 25-km GFDL SPEAR Bor-Ting Jong, Princeton University, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Water resource-relevant hot-dry compound events in the Western US Flavio Lehner, Cornell University

Open discussion 

Break

Session 4: Recent Historical Trends: Role of Forcings and/or Internal Variability in Recent Historical Trends
(Invited) The signal-to-noise error in decadal climate modes Jeremy Klavans, University of Colorado Boulder
External forcing of the North Atlantic Oscillation* Doug Smith, Met Office
Anthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases William Collins, Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley
The relative importance of forced and unforced temperature patterns in driving the time variation of low-cloud feedback Yuan-Jen Lin, Columbia University / NASA GISS

Open discussion

Lightning talks for virtual posters

Lunch

Poster Session 2

Break

Breakout Session 2 (virtual and in-person)

End of day 2

Optional group Activity: Avanti Food and Beverage Boulder (hike canceled due to weather)
Time Agenda Presenter Presentation file

Breakfast

Alternate Breakout Session 2 (virtual only)

Day 2 review

Session 5: Fully Coupled System Processes
(Invited) Drought-climate feedbacks: Model uncertainties and potential for surprises* Sonia Seneviratne, ETH
Challenges in simulating the historical trajectory of carbon stocks on land David Lawrence, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Trends in PM air pollution in the context of internal climate variability* Olivia Clifton, NASA GISS/Columbia University
Constraining different facets of global water cycle projections with observations* Hervé Douville, Météo-France

Open discussion

Break

Session 6: New Applications and Methodologies
(Invited) Improved simulations of southern ocean and tropical eastern pacific trends in high-resolution earth system models Ping Chang, Texas A&M University
Recent Tropical Pacific cooling and Walker circulation strengthening driven by anthropogenic emissions Pedro DiNezio, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, CU Boulder
Constraining tropospheric stability trends using surface temperature patterns: A machine learning approach Li-Wei Chao, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Rapid development of systematic trend errors in seasonal forecasts and their connection to climate model errors Jonathan Beverley, NOAA PSL and CIRES/CU Boulder

Open discussion

Lightning talks for virtual posters

Lunch

Poster Session 3

Breakout Session 3 (virtual and in-person)

Break

Breakout report out

Conclusions and future steps

Workshop concludes

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