Task Team 3: AMOC Mechanisms and Predictability
The team is charged with assessing the physical mechanisms underlying AMOC variability and the potential predictability of the AMOC. Both natural and anthropogenically-induced variations are being pursued.
View TT3 Near- and Long-Term Priorities
| Member name | Institution |
|---|---|
| Michael Spall, chair | Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution |
| Aixue Hu, vice-chair | National Center for Atmospheric Research |
| Hussein Aluie | University of Rochester |
| Annalisa Bracco | Georgia Institute of Technology |
| Grant Branstator | National Center for Atmospheric Research |
| Michelle Buzzicotti | University of Rome Tor Vergata/University of Rochester |
| Renato Castelo | University of Georgia |
| Paola Cessi | Scripps Institution of Oceanography |
| Ping Chang | Texas A&M University |
| Wei Cheng | NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Lab |
| Alan Condron | Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution |
| Gokhan Danabasoglu | National Center for Atmospheric Research |
| Timothy DelSole | George Mason University |
| Tom Delworth | NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory |
| William Dewar | Florida State University |
| Shenfu Dong | University of Miami/NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory |
| Alexey Fedorov | Yale University |
| Ichiro Fukumori | NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory |
| Marlos Goes | University of Miami/NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory |
| Thomas Haine | Johns Hopkins University |
| Benjamin Harden | Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution |
| Chris Hill | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| Quentin Jamet | Florida State University |
| Who Kim | National Center for Atmospheric Research |
| Sang Ki Lee | NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab |
| Wei Liu | University of California, Riverside |
| Patricia Medeiros | University of Georgia |
| An T. Nguyen | University of Texas at Austin |
| Hilde Oliver | Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution |
| Cécile Penland | NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory |
| Robert Pickart | Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution |
| Rui Ponte | Atmospheric and Environmental Research |
| Anastasia Romanou | Columbia University/NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies |
| Tony Rosati | NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory |
| Andreas Schmittner | Oregon State University |
| Aviv Solodoch | University of California - Los Angeles |
| Andrew Stewart | University of California - Los Angeles |
| Benjamin Storer | University of Rochester |
| Fillipos Tagklis | Georgia Institute of Technology |
| Eli Tziperman | Harvard University |
| Wilbert Weijer | Los Alamos National Lab |
| Nico Wienders | Florida State University |
| Xiaobiao Xu | Florida State University |
| Steve Yeager | National Center for Atmospheric Research |
| Laure Zanna | New York University |
| Jiaxu Zhang | Los Alamos National Laboratory |
| Rong Zhang | NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory |
Near-term priorities
- Investigate how surface exchanges of buoyancy and momentum between the ocean and the atmosphere/cryosphere drive the AMOC circulation across a broad range of timescales from monthly to millennial (i.e., quasi-steady-state).
- Clarify the apparent disagreement between models of different complexity regarding i) the role of Southern Ocean wind and ii) the role of Nordic Seas overflows in maintaining and modulating the AMOC.
- Quantify the magnitude, location, and physical mechanisms associated with interior diapycnal mixing in the ocean, which contribute to the diabatic AMOC, and evaluate the realism of current GCMs in this regard.
- Investigate the role of freshwater forcing and South Atlantic freshwater transports in determining the variability and stability of the AMOC.
- Expand the use of eddy-resolving models, particularly in regional/process studies designed to: i) test the robustness of AMOC variability mechanisms identified in coarser GCMs or idealized models; ii) address the origins of persistent model bias in the North Atlantic region (e.g., Gulf Stream separation and the North Atlantic Current path); and iii) assess the role of ocean turbulence in AMOC variability.
- Quantify the predictability properties of AMOC in idealized and comprehensive models and identify mechanisms that affect these properties.
- Explore the mechanisms associated with AMOC variability on centennial-to-millennial timescales, and evaluate the realism of GCMs on these timescales relative to available paleo proxy data, perhaps using proxy-enabled coupled climate models.
Long-term priorities
- Translate the knowledge developed about AMOC variability and predictability mechanisms into reliable decadal climate forecasts.
- Incorporate mesoscale eddy-resolving ocean models more fully into the toolkit used for AMOC mechanisms/prediction studies, including long coupled GCM simulations, in order to address questions about the role of turbulence in controlling AMOC.
- Synthesize results from theoretical, idealized models, and more complex GCM investigations into a common conceptual framework regarding key AMOC variability mechanisms and identify the resulting predictability of the AMOC.
The task team will also coordinate with the U.S. CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group as well as the CLIVAR Working Group on Ocean Model Development and CLIVAR Global Synthesis and Observational Panel.