Forecasting ENSO Impacts on Marine Ecosystems of the US West Coast Agenda

Session 1:  Regional mechanisms impacting key ecosystem indicators

The goal of this session is to (1) identify a set of key ecosystem indicators that characterize the ecosystem state, both in terms of ecosystem functions and of management of ecosystem services, and (2) identify the regional process (physical effects, bottom-up, and top-down) that generate predictable responses in the ecosystem state variables used to define the ecological indicators.

Session 2:  Impacts of ENSO diversity on ecosystem drivers

Along the US West Coast, ENSO impacts can differ greatly. This reflects the diverse flavors of the tropical expression of ENSO and its teleconnection to the higher latitudes. The goal of this session is to (1) review the different flavors of ENSO impact on the ocean, atmosphere, and ecosystem state over the North American West Coast, and (2) examine what aspects of the ENSO teleconnections generate predictable responses in the ecosystem drivers (e.g., those discussed in session 1). 

Session 3:  Dynamical and statistical modeling for ecosystem forecasts

The goal of this session is to identify a set of modeling platform that show promise for forecasting the ENSO impacts on marine ecosystems. These modeling platform can be both dynamical or statistical, or a combination of both. We will review the hindcast and predictability potential of existing models, assess the data needs to make these models operational, and identify new modeling approaches.

Session 4:  Data streams and operational ecosystem forecasts

This session will be devoted to identifying the technical challenges in implementing an operational forecast of ENSO impacts on marine ecosystems. These challenges include (1) identifying priorities in ecological indicators to forecast, (2) obtaining real-time access to the required data streams for the model forecasts and developing new required data streams, (3) providing uncertainty estimates on the forecasts, and (4) developing communication strategies to stakeholders and the public. 

Session 5:  Developing a general ecosystem forecasting framework

In this session, we will summarize the information and understanding gained during the workshop and discuss the possibility of a review (or white paper) that outlines a generalized framework to forecast the impact of ENSO (and possibly other climate phenomena) on target ecosystem indicators. 

Wednesday, August 10, 2016
Time Agenda Presenter Presentation
08:45

Welcome remarks, overview of the day

Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Georgia Tach

Mark Ohman, (SIO)

09:00 to 12:00

Session 1: Regional mechanisms

Facilitators: Julie Keister (UW), Nathan Mantua (NOAA)

09:00 Ecosystem indicators Marisol Garcia-Reyes, Farallon Institute Download
09:20 Physical processes impacting ecosystem indicators Mike Jacox, UC Santa Cruz/NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center Download
09:40 Remote ocean vs. local/regional atmospheric forcing Art Miller, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Download
10:00

Break

10:30 Discussion: Session 1
12:00

Lunch

13:00 to 16:00

Session 2: ENSO diversity

Facilitators: Kris Karnauskas (U. Colarado), Anesh Subramanian (Oxford U.)

13:00 Different types of ENSO variability and teleconnections Antonietta Capotondi, NOAA Earth System Research Lab Download
13:20 ENSO impacts on ecosystem indicators Mark Ohman, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Download
13:40 Coastal ocean response to ENSO, models and observations Chris Edwards, UC Santa Cruz & Dan Rudnick, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Download
14:00 Discussion: Session 2
14:45

Break

15:15 Discussion: Session 2 cont.
16:00 to 17:00

Overview of day 1

Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Georgia Tech & Art Miller, Scripps Institution of Oceanography 
17:00

Break for evening social event

Thursday, August 11, 2016
Time Agenda Presenter Presentation
08:30 Overview of day 2
08:40 to 11:30

Session 3: Dynamical and statistical modeling for ecosystem forecasts

Facilitators: Clarissa Anderson (UCSC), Brian Powell (U. Hawaii)

08:40 Biogeochemical models Samantha Siedlecki, U. Washington Download
09:00 Modeling and forecasting lower trophic impacts Cecile Rousseaux, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Download
09:20 Modeling and forecasting higher trophic levels and top predators Elliott Hazen, NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center Download
09:40 Statistical methods for ecosystem forecasting

Open Discussion

10:00

Break

10:20 Discussion: Session 3
11:30

Lunch

12:30 to 14:30

Session 4: Data streams and operational ecosystem forecasting

Facilitators: Cisco Werner (NOAA), Jack Barth (OSU)

12:30 Operational forecasting of ocean conditions Wanqiu Wang, NOAA Climate Prediction Center Download
12:50 Data streams for data assimilation and forecasting Sergey Frolov, Naval Research Lab Download
13:10 Ecosystem forecasts Mike Alexander, NOAA Earth System Research Lab Download
13:30 Discussion: Session 4
14:30

Break

15:00 to 17:00

Session 5: Developing a general ecosystem forecasting framework

Facilitators: Emanuele Di Lorenzo (Georgia Tech), Art Miller (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)

15:00

PICES/CLIVAR: Climate and Ecosystem Predictability (CEP)

Nick Bond (NOAA)

Download
15:20

ICES: Seasonal-to-Decadal (S2D)

Mark Payne (DTU)

Download
15:40

Discussion: Session 5

17:00

Meeting adjourns