Forecasting ENSO Impacts on Marine Ecosystems of the US West Coast Agenda

Session 1:  Regional mechanisms impacting key ecosystem indicators

The goal of this session is to (1) identify a set of key ecosystem indicators that characterize the ecosystem state, both in terms of ecosystem functions and of management of ecosystem services, and (2) identify the regional process (physical effects, bottom-up, and top-down) that generate predictable responses in the ecosystem state variables used to define the ecological indicators.

Session 2:  Impacts of ENSO diversity on ecosystem drivers

Along the US West Coast, ENSO impacts can differ greatly. This reflects the diverse flavors of the tropical expression of ENSO and its teleconnection to the higher latitudes. The goal of this session is to (1) review the different flavors of ENSO impact on the ocean, atmosphere, and ecosystem state over the North American West Coast, and (2) examine what aspects of the ENSO teleconnections generate predictable responses in the ecosystem drivers (e.g., those discussed in session 1). 

Session 3:  Dynamical and statistical modeling for ecosystem forecasts

The goal of this session is to identify a set of modeling platform that show promise for forecasting the ENSO impacts on marine ecosystems. These modeling platform can be both dynamical or statistical, or a combination of both. We will review the hindcast and predictability potential of existing models, assess the data needs to make these models operational, and identify new modeling approaches.

Session 4:  Data streams and operational ecosystem forecasts

This session will be devoted to identifying the technical challenges in implementing an operational forecast of ENSO impacts on marine ecosystems. These challenges include (1) identifying priorities in ecological indicators to forecast, (2) obtaining real-time access to the required data streams for the model forecasts and developing new required data streams, (3) providing uncertainty estimates on the forecasts, and (4) developing communication strategies to stakeholders and the public. 

Session 5:  Developing a general ecosystem forecasting framework

In this session, we will summarize the information and understanding gained during the workshop and discuss the possibility of a review (or white paper) that outlines a generalized framework to forecast the impact of ENSO (and possibly other climate phenomena) on target ecosystem indicators. 

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