Workshop on Societally-Relevant Multi-Year Climate Agenda

Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Time Agenda Presenter Presentation
07:30

Workshop registration & continental breakfast

08:30

Welcome, opening remarks, workshop goals

Matt Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, and Mike Patterson, US CLIVAR

08:40

(Invited) Keynote

Lisa Goddard, Columbia University
09:05

Session 1: Ocean processes/predictability - Part I: Atlantic/Arctic

09:05 (Invited) Multi-year predictability in the Atlantic Ocean Martha Buckley, George Mason University
09:25 (Invited) Prospects for multi-year predictions of the cryosphere Marika Holland, NCAR
09:45 Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential Helene Reinertsen Langehaug, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
10:00

Break

10:30

Lightning poster talks for day 1 posters

11:00

Poster session 1

12:15

Lunch

13:45 Windows of opportunity in decadal predictions of North Atlantic SST Leonard Borchert, LOCEAN, IPSL
14:00

Session 2: Ocean processes/predictability - Part II: Pacific

14:00 Two-year predictions of ENSO event duration during 1954-2015 Xian Wu, University of Texas at Austin
14:15 Skillful interannual forecasts of the tropical Indo-Pacific using model-analogs Hui Ding, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/PSD
14:30 (Invited) Use of machine learning technique in predicting ENSO and IOD Jing-Jia Luo, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
14:50

10 minute stretch

15:00

Session 3: Ocean applications

15:00 (Invited) Multi-year climate predictions to support fisheries management in a changing ocean Desiree Tommasi, University of California-Santa Cruz and NOAA SWFSC
15:20 (Invited) Near-term predictions of ocean biogeochemistry in the Community Earth System Model Nikki Lovenduski, University of Colorado
15:40 High tide flooding and NOAA sea level rise science and services Billy Sweet, NOAA/NOS
15:55

Break

16:25

Breakout session 1 over ocean/cryosphere and predictions

17:30

Reception

19:00

End day 1

Wednesday, April 1, 2020
Time Agenda Presenter Presentation
07:30

Continental breakfast

08:30

Session 4: Numerical modeling techniques

08:30 (Invited) Next generation seasonal to decadal prediction at GFDL using SPEAR Tom Delworth, NOAA GFDL
08:50 Ensemble approaches to enhance climate prediction Noel Keenlyside, University of Bergen
09:05 Increasing the sample size for testing decadal forecasts Greg Hakim, University of Washington
09:20

Session 5: Land/Atmosphere processes/predictability

09:20 (Invited) Multi-year land surface predictability Andy Wood, NCAR
09:40 (Invited) Representation and predictability of the QBO in global models and impacts of the QBO on tropospheric predictability Yaga Richter, NCAR
10:00

Break

10:30

Lightning poster talks for day 2 posters

11:00

Poster session 2

12:15

Lunch

13:45

Session 5: Land/Atmosphere processes/predictability (cont.)

13:45 (Invited) Assessing multi-year predictability of the Colorado River water supply using a drift-free decadal climate prediction system Yoshi Chikamoto, Utah State University
14:05 Multi-year soil moisture predictability in the Community Earth System Model-Decadal Prediction-Large Ensemble (CESM-DP-LE) Experiments Sanjiv Kumar, Auburn University
14:20 Preliminary investigation of multiyear climate prediction in Australia Sharmila Sur, University of Southern Queensland/Bureau of Meteorology
14:35

10 minute stretch

14:45

Session 6: Potential applications

14:45 (Invited) Impact of multiyear predictions on water utility planning Laurna Kaatz, Denver Water
15:05 ENSO life cycles and the potential usefulness of multi-year predictions for agriculture Weston Anderson, Columbia University
15:20 (Invited) How multi-year prediction could impact planning for drought impacts on food security Tamuka Magadzire, FEWS NET
15:40

Break

16:10

Breakout session 2 over land/atmosphere predictions

17:10

End day 2

Thursday, April 2, 2020
Time Agenda Presenter Presentation
07:30

Continental breakfast

08:30

Breakout synthesis report

09:30

Session 7: Current and planned multiyear prediction capabilities

09:30 (Invited) Multi-year forecasting at the Met Office Hadley Centre Julia Lockwood, UK Met Office
09:50 (Invited) Climate predictions for climate services: Current activities and future plans at ECMWF Anca Brookshaw, ECMWF
10:10

Break

10:40 The Colorado Basin Streamflow Forecast Testbed: Assessing hydrologic skill and operational projections of streamflow forecasts in the Colorado River Basin Sarah Baker, Bureau of Reclamation
10:55 Application and utility of multi-year to decadal climate forecasts: The Tasmanian climate consortium perspective Carly Tozer, CSIRO
11:10 Applications of multi-year climate prediction: An exploratory discussion on rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa Neil Ward, Independent Consultant
11:25 Plans for Multi-year NMME Ben Kirtman, University of Miami
11:45

Discussion and next steps

13:00

Adjourn workshop

13:30

Organizing committee meeting (for members)