Workshop on Societally-Relevant Multi-Year Climate Agenda
| Time (MDT) | Agenda | Presenter | Presentation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17:30 to 19:00 |
Informal Icebreaker - Rayback Collective. |
| Time (MDT) | Agenda | Presenter | Presentation |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Note: All displayed times are in US Mountain Daylight Time (UTC -6). |
|||
| 07:00 |
Workshop registration & continental breakfast |
||
| 07:30 | Virtual room open | ||
| 08:00 |
Welcome, opening remarks, workshop goals |
Matt Newman (University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL) |
View |
| 08:15 |
(Invited) Keynote |
Gerald Meehl (NCAR) | View |
|
Session 1: Ocean processes/predictability - Atlantic/Arctic |
Moderators: Ed Blanchard (University of Washington)* and Noel Keenlyside (University of Bergen)* | Recording | |
| 08:45 | (Invited) Multi-year predictability in the Atlantic Ocean | Martha Buckley (George Mason University)* | View |
| 09:00 | (Invited) Prospects for multi-year predictions of the cryosphere | Marika Holland (NCAR) | View |
| 09:15 | Learning from a failed prediction: A multimodel study of a subpolar North Atlantic cold extreme | Elizabeth Maroon (University of Wisconsin) | View |
| 09:25 | Discussion | ||
| 09:40 |
Break |
||
|
Session 2: Ocean processes/predictability - Pacific |
Moderators: Antonietta Capotondi (University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL) and Sarah Larson (NCSU) | Recording | |
| 10:00 |
Two-year dynamical predictions of ENSO event duration during 1954-2015 |
Xian Wu (UCAR) | View |
| 10:10 | Youngji Joh (NOAA/GFDL) | View | |
| 10:20 | Insights into multi-year and multi-decadal predictability from ocean initial conditions in the CESM2 Large Ensemble | Robert Jnglin Wills (University of Washington) | View |
| 10:30 | Hui Ding (University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL)* | View | |
| 10:40 | Discussion | ||
| 10:55 | Breakout session 1 | ||
| 11:40 | Break/Lunch | ||
| 12:40 | Poster session | ||
|
Session 3: Ocean applications |
Moderators: Mike Alexander (NOAA/PSL) and Haiyan Teng (PNNL)* | Recording | |
| 14:10 | (Invited) Near-term predictions of ocean biogeochemistry in the Community Earth System Model | Nikki Lovenduski (University of Colorado) | View |
| 14:25 | (Invited) Multi-year climate predictions to support fisheries management in a changing ocean | Stephanie Brodie (UC Santa Cruz and NOAA/SWFSC) | View |
| 14:40 | High tide flooding and NOAA sea level rise science and services | Billy Sweet, NOAA/NOS | View |
| 14:50 |
Discussion |
||
| 15:05 | Break | ||
| 15:15 |
Breakout session 2 |
||
| 16:00 |
End day 1, In-person networking, optional in-person poster session |
| Time (MDT) | Agenda | Presenter | Presentation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Note: All displayed times are in US Mountain Daylight Time (UTC -6). Convert to your local time. |
|||
| 07:00 |
Continental breakfast |
||
| 07:30 | Virtual room open | ||
| 08:00 | Welcome, day 2 objectives | Matt Newman (University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL) | |
|
Session 4: Land/atmosphere processes/predictability |
Moderators: Toby Ault (Cornell University)* and Ben Kirtman (University of Miami)* | Recording | |
| 08:10 | (Invited) Multi-year land surface predictability | Andy Wood (NCAR) | View |
| 08:25 | (Invited) Representation and predictability of the QBO in global models and impacts of the QBO on tropospheric predictability | Adam Scaife (UK Met Office)* | View |
| 08:40 | (Invited) Assessing multi-year predictability of the Colorado River water supply using a drift-free decadal climate prediction system | Yoshi Chikamoto (Utah State University)* | View |
| 08:55 | Multi-year soil moisture predictability in the Community Earth System Model-Decadal Prediction-Large Ensemble (CESM-DP-LE) Experiments | Sanjiv Kumar (Auburn University) | View |
| 09:05 | Discussion | ||
| 09:20 | Break | ||
| Session 5: Numerical and empirical modeling techniques | Moderators: Pedro DiNezio (University of Colorado) and Julia Lockwood (UK Met Office)* | Recording | |
| 09:40 | (Invited) Next generation seasonal to decadal prediction at GFDL using SPEAR | Tom Delworth (NOAA/GFDL)* | View |
| 09:55 | Ensemble approaches to enhance climate prediction | Noel Keenlyside (University of Bergen)* | View |
| 10:05 | Increasing the sample size for testing decadal forecasts | Greg Hakim (University of Washington) | View |
| 10:15 | Creating skillful decadal climate predictions right now | Leonard Borchert (IPSL)* | View |
| 10:25 | Discussion | ||
| 10:40 | Breakout session 3 | ||
| 11:25 | Break/Lunch | ||
| 12:25 | Poster session | ||
| 14:00 | (Invited) Use of machine learning technique in predicting ENSO and IOD | Jing-Jia Luo (Nanjing University)* | View |
|
Session 6: Potential applications |
Moderators: Andy Hoell (NOAA/PSL) and Erin Towler (NCAR) | Recording | |
| 14:15 | (Invited) How multi-year prediction could impact planning for drought impacts on food security | Tamuka Magadzire (FEWS NET)* | View |
| 14:30 | Challenges and learnings in the application of multi-year forecasts in hydropower operations | Carly Tozer (CSIRO)* | View |
| 14:40 |
Discussion |
||
| 14:55 | Break | ||
| 15:15 |
Breakout session 4 |
||
| 16:00 |
End day 2 |
| Time (MDT) | Agenda | Presenter | Presentation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Note: All displayed times are in US Mountain Daylight Time (UTC -6). Convert to your local time. |
|||
| 07:00 |
Continental breakfast |
||
| 07:30 | Virtual room open | ||
| 08:00 |
Welcome, day 3 objectives |
Matt Newman (University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL) | |
| 08:10 | Breakout synthesis reports | Antonietta Capotondi (NOAA/PSL), Sarah Larson (North Carolina State University), Bill Merryfield (Environment and Climate Change Canada), and Pedro DiNezio (University of Colorado) | |
|
Session 6: Potential applications (continued) |
Moderators: Andy Hoell (NOAA/PSL) and Erin Towler (NCAR) | Recording | |
| 09:10 | The Colorado Basin Streamflow Forecast Testbed: Assessing hydrologic skill and operational projections of streamflow forecasts in the Colorado River Basin | Sarah Baker (Bureau of Reclamation) | View |
| 09:20 | Multiyear statistical prediction of ENSO enhanced by the Tropical Pacific Observing System | Desislava Petrova (Climate and Health Program and ISGlobal)* | View |
| 09:30 | Discussion | ||
| 09:45 | Break | ||
| Session 7: Current and planned multiyear prediction capabilities | Moderators: Bill Merryfield (Environment and Climate Change Canada)* and Matt Newman (University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL) | Recording | |
| 10:10 | (Invited) Multi-year forecasting at the Met Office Hadley Centre | Julia Lockwood (UK Met Office)* | View |
| 10:25 | (Invited) Climate predictions for climate services: Current activities and future plans at ECMWF | Anca Brookshaw (ECMWF)* | View |
| 10:40 | (Invited) Plans for Multi-year NMME | Emily Becker (University of Miami) | View |
| 10:55 | User-tailored representation of climate predictions – the DWD climate prediction website | Birgit Mannig (DWD)* | View |
| 11:05 | Towards development of multiyear climate prediction framework for Australia | Sharmila Sur (University of Southern Queensland/Bureau of Meteorology)* | View |
| 11:15 | Discussion | ||
| 11:30 |
Discussion and next steps |
||
| 12:00 |
Adjourn workshop |
||
| 12:30 |
Organizing committee meeting (for members) |
*Virtual