US Climate Variability and Predictability Program

Air-Sea

Time series of the Niño-3.4 SST index (°C) in observations (black curves) and ensemble-mean forecasts (colored curves) composited for 10 1-yr El Niño, 5 2-yr El Niño, 4 1-yr La Niña, 8 2-yr La Niña, 4 2-yr La Niña following strong El Niño, and 4 2-yr La Niña following moderate El Niño events during 1954–2015.
Predicting the duration of El Niño and La Niña events with multiyear lead time
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Are long-term changes in mixed layer depth influencing North Pacific marine heatwaves?
Saildrone: Adaptively sampling the marine environment
Saildrone: Adaptively sampling the marine environment
Estimates of interannual variability from new and published coral records from the northern Line Islands
How short-term Arctic warming can lead to delayed stratospheric circulation responses
Schematic representation of the (a) atmospheric “non-frontal” and (b) atmospheric “frontal” components
New perspectives regarding Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Extension influence on the atmosphere
Boxplots showing how well model forecasts capture the observations between the two winter seasons, 2016–17 minus 2015–16
California winter precipitation linked to the Arctic Oscillation
Schematic representation of proposed dynamical mechanisms in summer
The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation
Subsurface ocean heat content anomalies regressed onto low-pass filtered time series of eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. The black boxes outline the eastern (10°–20°S, 100°–120°E) and western (10°–20°S, 50°–90°E) Indian Ocean, showing the east–west dipole structure.
Pacific influences decadal Indian Ocean heat content via two distinct mechanisms
Response in wintertime surface air temperature and surface wind to imposed RCP8.5 sea ice loss over the Barents-Kara sea
“Warm Arctic–Cold Siberia” pattern: The importance of the stratospheric circulation
trends in the latitude of the (left) Northern Hemisphere and (right) Southern Hemisphere tropical edg
Can models capture the seasonality of the recent expansion of the tropics?
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