US Climate Variability and Predictability Program

Internal Variability

Schematic diagram of the AMOC delayed oscillator, i.e., the delayed feedback of the revised Stommel’s Two-Box Model.
A simple conceptual model for the multidecadal AMOC variability and associated two-way interactions with the Arctic salinity anomaly
DJFM response of U700 in fully-coupled runs of SC-WACCM4, for ensemble members
How reproducible is the response to +2°C Arctic sea-ice loss in a large ensemble of simulations?
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Contrasting recent and future changes in the Intertropical Convergence Zone
Global fields shown for different boreal winters and QBO phases
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation modulates teleconnections of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Estimates of interannual variability from new and published coral records from the northern Line Islands
How short-term Arctic warming can lead to delayed stratospheric circulation responses
The Observational Large Ensemble (Obs-LE) can be used to assess the relative roles of internal variability and anthropogenic influence on 50-year trends in (a-b) temperature and (c-d) precipitation over land.
Developing Observational Large Ensembles for climate variability
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