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Research Highlights Topic: Climate Change

Comparing projections of multiple fire weather indices across the contiguous United States
Comparing projections of multiple fire weather indices across the contiguous United States
high-resolution global climate simulation ensembles highlights major advances in representing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs)
New high-resolution climate simulation ensembles highlight the importance of mesoscale dynamics in shaping future extreme precipitation
Figure 1. The 35-year trends of winter-spring sea surface temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure. a, observation of 1980-2014. Model-simulated 35-year trends for pre-industrial climate grouped and averaged for b, the strongest El Niño-like trends and c, the strongest  La Niña-like trends. Model-simulated 35-year trends for 1980-2014  grouped and averaged for the ensemble members d, with the strongest El Niño-like trends and e, with the strongest La Niña-like trends.
Drivers of the Southwestern US precipitation decline
Adapted from Figs. 2, 4B and 9C of Karnauskas (2025). See full paper more details and complete captions.
A new observational benchmark for equatorial upwelling
Observed trends in zonal-mean TEMPAC over the period 1980-2022 for three different datasets and ocean basins
Enhanced and weakened annual cycle in the vertical fingerprint of ocean temperature
Global average sea surface temperature anomaly
Historical and projected changes in climate predictability
Section of Table 1 of Rugenstein and Armour 2021 describing three possibilities of defining radiative feedbacks and their applications.
The many different flavors of radiative feedbacks
Schematic showing the energy balance for the entire atmosphere north of 40°N in the climates with and without a vigorous AMOC.
Ocean circulation and extreme winter weather
Frequencies of co-occurrence of marine and terrestrial extreme events.
Will compound marine heatwave-drought events along the West Coast become more frequent in the future?
Comparison of overlapping one-year estimates at 6-month intervals of net top-of-the-atmosphere annual energy flux from the CERES EBAF Ed4.1 product and an in situ observational estimate of uptake of energy by Earth climate system
Satellite and Argo data reveal doubling of Earth’s heating rate since 2005
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