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Research Highlights Topic: ENSO

Illustration of the neural network architecture, including SST inputs (left) and the region over which a conditional Gaussian distribution of 500 mb heights is predicted (right).
Detection of state-dependent prediction skill using an adaptable, machine learning-based approach
A graph showing the onset of ENSO episodes
When models miss the mark: Two decades of low-skill predictions in ENSO phase transitions
Global average sea surface temperature anomaly
Historical and projected changes in climate predictability
Time series of the Niño-3.4 SST index (°C) in observations (black curves) and ensemble-mean forecasts (colored curves) composited for 10 1-yr El Niño, 5 2-yr El Niño, 4 1-yr La Niña, 8 2-yr La Niña, 4 2-yr La Niña following strong El Niño, and 4 2-yr La Niña following moderate El Niño events during 1954–2015.
Predicting the duration of El Niño and La Niña events with multiyear lead time
Six US maps with color modeling
US precipitation modulated by MJO-ENSO teleconnection interference
Estimates of interannual variability from new and published coral records from the northern Line Islands
Coral reconstructions of central tropical Pacific climate suggest a 25% increase in recent El Niño Southern Oscillation intensity
Boxplots showing how well model forecasts capture the observations between the two winter seasons, 2016–17 minus 2015–16
California winter precipitation linked to the Arctic Oscillation
SST anomalies in the boreal winter
Increasing coupling of Pacific dynamics leads to prolonged marine heatwaves
Megadrougth schematic and teleconnections
Volcanic eruptions interact with El Nino events, affecting sustained ‘megadrought’
Changes in SST variance of ENSO
Is El Niño really changing?
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