2012 U.S. AMOC PI Meeting Agenda

August 15, 2012 - August 17, 2012

Boulder, Colorado

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Wednesday (15 August):

08:20 Introduction and logistics (Bill Johns/Gokhan Danabasoglu) (View PowerPoint presentation)

Science session 1: AMOC State, Variability, and Change

08:30 Molly Baringer: Meridional overturning and heat transport from expendable bathythermograph data (View PowerPoint presentation)

08:45 Bill Johns: Interannual variability of the AMOC and ocean heat transport at 26.5^oN observed by the RAPID-MOCHA array (View PowerPoint presentation)

09:00 Matthias Lankhorst: Meridional coherence and divergence of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) (View PowerPoint presentation)

09:15 Silvia Garzoli: South Atlantic meridional fluxes (View PowerPoint presentation)

09:30 Kathryn Kelly: The coherence and impact of meridional heat transport anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean inferred from observations (View PowerPoint presentation)

09:45 Peter Rhines: AMOC variability and sea-surface height observations, models, and atmospheric connections (View PowerPoint presentation)

10:00 James Carton: Does the mid-latitude ocean drive polar variability? (View PowerPoint presentation)

10:15 BREAK

Science session 2: AMOC State, Variability, and Change (continued)

10:45 Patrick Heimbach: Two decades of the AMOC: its structure, variability, and predictability (View PowerPoint presentation)

11:00 Gokhan Danabasoglu: AMOC in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs) (View PowerPoint presentation)

11:15 Jeremy Grist: Surface estimates of the Atlantic overturning in density space in an eddy-permitting ocean model (View PowerPoint presentation)

11:30 Roberts: A multi-model study of the 2009/2010 minimum in AMOC at 26N and sub-tropical Atlantic ocean heat content (View PowerPoint presentation)

AMOC Variability Mechanisms and Predictability

11:45 Paola Cessi: Thermohaline feedbacks and multiple equilibria in the adiabatic regime (View PowerPoint presentation)

12:00 Jiayan Yang: Some effects of topography and wind stress on the Nordic Sea overflow (View PowerPoint presentation)

12:15 Dongxiao Zhang: Connection between salinity decadal variations in the Subpolar North Atlantic and tropical Atlantic AMOC (View PowerPoint presentation)

12:30 LUNCH

Science session 3: AMOC Variability Mechanisms and Predictability (continued)

13:45 Shenfu Dong: Causes for model-data differences in seasonal variations of the South Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (View PowerPoint presentation)

14:00 Chunzai Wang: Cause of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation: A positive feedback between SST and dust aerosol via Sahel rainfall (View PowerPoint presentation)

14:15 Xiuquan Wan (Presented by Ping Chang): Weather’s effect on Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate change (View PowerPoint presentation)

14:30 Alexey Fedorov: An interdecadal oscillatory mode of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a hierarchy of ocean and coupled models (View PowerPoint presentation)

14:45 Laura Jackson: Exploring the stability of the AMOC in HadCM3 (View PowerPoint presentation)

15:00 Wilbert Weijer: Response of the Atlantic Ocean circulation to Greenland ice sheet melting in a global, strongly-eddying ocean model (View PowerPoint presentation)

15:15 BREAK

Science session 4: AMOC Variability Mechanisms and Predictability (continued)

15:45 Claude Frankignoul: The coupling between the AMOC and the atmosphere in CCSM3 (View PowerPoint presentation)

16:00 Rym Msadek: Decadal predictions of the AMOC in the GFDL initialized coupled models experiments (For more information contact: rym.msadek@noaa.gov)

16:15 Stephen Yeager: On the origins of low-frequency variations in large-scale North Atlantic circulation in the 20^th Century (View PowerPoint presentation)

AMOC Climate Impacts

16:30 Martha Buckley: Examining the relationships between low-frequency SST and AMOC variability (View PowerPoint presentation)

16:45 Will Hobbs: The salinity and heat budgets of the subtropical North Atlantic: Initial analysis (View PowerPoint presentation)

17:00 Mingfang Ting: Pattern of Atlantic multidecadal SST variability in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models, link to AMOC, and related global impacts (View PowerPoint presentation)

17:15 Yehui Chang: AMOC variability and its impacts on the global climate (View PowerPoint presentation)

17:30 Lesley Allison: Mechanisms and impacts of decadal-scale fluctuation events in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in unforced climate model simulations (View PowerPoint presentation)

17:45 – 19:45 RECEPTION AND POSTERS

Thursday (16 August): Mini workshops (MW)

08:30 – 12:30 MW#1 and MW#2 running in parallel with a break at 10:15

MW#1: AMOC Fingerprinting from Historical and Proxy Data

08:30 Casey Saenger: Ocean2k synthesis and the reconstruction of the past multidecadal variability in the Atlantic Ocean, and its potential link to the AMOC research community (View PowerPoint presentation)

09:00 Ben Horton: Sea-level change along the Atlantic coast of the United States (View PowerPoint presentation)

09:30 Rong Zhang: Review of AMOC fingerprints from models and observations (View PowerPoint presentation)

10:00 Discussion (Lead: Rong Zhang, Rapporteur: Josh Willis)

10:15 BREAK and POSTERS

10:45 Discussion (continued)

MW#2: AMOC’s Impact on the Carbon Cycle

08:30 Scott Doney: Impacts of climate forcing on CO₂ uptake in the North Atlantic (View PowerPoint presentation)

09:00 Galen McKinley: North Atlantic carbon cycle variability on multi-decadal time scales (View PowerPoint presentation)

09:30 Discussion (Lead: Yochanan Kushnir, Rapporteur: Ping Chang)

10:15 BREAK and POSTERS

10:45 Discussion (continued)

12:30 LUNCH

13:45 – 17:45 MW#3 and MW#4 running in parallel with a break at 15:15

MW#3: The AMOC Observing System

13:45 Johanna Baehr: AMOC state and variability from existing and planned mooring arrays in the Atlantic (For more information contact: johanna.baehr@zmaw.de)

14:15 Rui Ponte: AMOC variability from satellite data and ocean state estimates (View PowerPoint presentation)

14:45 Stefan Gary: Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic: Insights from Observing System Simulation Experiments (View PowerPoint presentation)

15:00 Thomas Rossby: OceanScope (View PowerPoint presentation)

15:15 BREAK and POSTERS

15:45 - 17:45 Discussion (Lead: Susan Lozier, Rapporteur: Patrick Heimbach)

MW#4: AMOC Mechanisms and Predictability

13:45 Tom Delworth: Review of Proposed Mechanisms for Decadal to Multidecadal AMOC and Atlantic Variability (View PowerPoint presentation)

14:15 Grant Branstator: Initial Value Predictability of Upper Layer Temperature and AMOC (View PowerPoint presentation)

14:45 Discussion (Lead: Gokhan Danabasoglu, Rapporteur: Young-Oh Kwon)

15:15 BREAK and POSTERS

15:45 - 17:45 Discussion (continued)

18:30 - 21:30 Meeting of the Executive Committee and External Review Committee (Invitation only — Millenium Hotel/Boulder Creek Living Room & Zolo Restaurant)

Friday (17 August):

08:30 Eric Lindstrom: Update/perspective from funding agencies (View PowerPoint presentation)

09:00 Summaries of MWs, including Near Term Priorities (NTPs) (20 minutes each)

View the summaries:

10:20 BREAK

10:50 Bill Johns and TT leaders: Plenary discussion: progress, NTPs, future directions

12:30 ADJOURN

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