US Climate Variability and Predictability Program

The Large Ensembles Workshop Agenda

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Tuesday, July 23, 2019
Time Agenda Presenter Presentation
18:30 to 20:30

Informal Icebreaker - Sanitas Brewing Co.

   
Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Time Agenda Presenter Presentation
 

Shuttle Schedule

  Download
07:30

Registration & Continental Breakfast

   
08:30

Welcome

Jean-François Lamarque, Director NCAR Climate & Global Dynamics Laboratory  
08:35

Session 1: Overview of Progress in Large Ensembles

Chair: John Fyfe, CCMA, Canada   
08:35 Workshop overview and goals Clara Deser, NCAR Download
08:50 A Multi-model Large Ensemble Archive Flavio Lehner, NCAR Download
09:05 An observationally-based Large Ensemble Karen McKinnon, University of California - Los Angeles Download
09:20 Using Large Ensembles for decadal prediction Nikki Lovenduski, University of Colorado Download
09:35

Session 2: Attribution & Projection Uncertainty

   
09:35 (Invited) Use of Large Ensembles for detection and attribution Ben Santer, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory  
09:55

14 Poster Lightning Talks (Early Career)

   
10:15

Break

   
10:45

Poster Session 1

   
12:15

Lunch

   
13:40

Session 2: Continued

Chair: Jen Kay, University of Colorado   
13:40 (Invited) Detecting climate signals with machine learning Elizabeth Barnes, Colorado State University  
14:00 Diagnosing externally-forced changes in ENSO dynamics and predictability within a CGCM Large Ensemble Matt Newman, CIRES/NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Download
14:15 A new analysis framework to detect changes in internal variability under global warming Sebastian Milinski, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Download
14:30 Variability, trends and sensitivity to aerosol forcing of historical climate simulations in a novel single-model ensemble Andrea Dittus, University of Reading  
14:45 The influence of internal climate variability on synoptically-driven poor air quality in Beijing Christopher Callahan, Dartmouth College Download
15:00

Intro to breakout topics (Value of LEs for evaluation, attribution, and unraveling projection uncertainty)

Isla Simpson, NCAR Download
15:15

Break

   
15:45

Breakout Session 1

  Download
17:00

Networking Opportunity

   
19:00

End of Day 1

   
19:15

Shuttles return to the hotels

   
Thursday, July 25, 2019
Time Agenda Presenter Presentation
 

Shuttle Schedule

  Download
07:00

Optional Hike - more details to come

Pedro DiNezio, Flavio Lehner, and Karen McKinnon  
07:30

Continental Breakfast

   
08:30

Breakout Synthesis Report

Pedro DiNezio, University of Texas-Austin Download
08:45

Session 3: Regional Climate Impacts

Chair: Dan Horton, Northwestern University   
08:45 (Invited) Regional downscaling of Large Ensembles for hydroclimate applications Daniel Swain, University of California - Los Angeles Download
09:05 Strength in numbers: using climate ensembles to study extreme weather phenomena on long timescales Colin Zarzycki, Penn State University Download
09:20 Historical trends in concurrent regional and global temperature extremes Deepti Singh, Washington State University - Vancouver Download
09:35 Understanding future change in subseasonal temperature variability and heat waves with the large ensemble approach Haiyan Teng, NCAR Download
09:50

14 Poster Lightning Talks (Early Career)

   
10:10

Break

   
10:45

Poster Session 2

   
12:15

Lunch

   
13:40

Session 4: New Applications and Methodologies

Chair: Arlene Fiore, Columbia University   
13:40 (Invited) Potential Applications of Large Ensembles in the Assessment of Health Impacts of Climate Variability and Change Patrick Kinney, Boston University Download
14:00 Economic impacts of variability under climate change on mortality projections Kevin Schwarzwald, University of Chicago Download
14:15 Using large ensembles to study future changes in terrestrial ecosystems James Randerson, University of California - Irvine Download
14:30 Separating climate variability and climate change: How many ensemble members are needed? Robert Jnglin Wills, University of Washington Download
14:45 Why large ensembles? Exploration of an alternate strategy using small, synthetic ensembles of global climate models Charles Curry, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium  
15:00

Intro to breakout topics (Large Ensemble design considerations, new research directions)

Tom Delworth, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Download
15:15

Break

   
15:45

Breakout Session 2

  Download
17:00

End of Day 2

   
17:15

Shuttles return to the hotels

   
Friday, July 26, 2019
Time Agenda Presenter Presentation
 

Shuttle Schedule

  Download
07:30

Continental Breakfast

   
08:30

Breakout Synthesis Report

Jen Kay, University of Colorado Download
09:00

Session 4: Continued

Chair: Keith Rodgers, Princeton University   
09:00 (Invited) Statistical simulation of climate time series for hypothesis testing Amy Braverman, NASA JPL Download
09:20 A large ensemble testbed to evaluate pCO2 interpolation methods Luke Gloege, Columbia University Download
09:35 Time of Emergence Model Intercomparison Project "ToE-MIP" for ocean biogeochemistry Sarah Schlunegger, Princeton University Download
09:50 Internal variability in projections of climate change impacts on air quality and health Fernando Garcia-Menendez, North Carolina State University Download
10:05

14 Poster Lightning Talks (Early Career)

   
10:20

Group Photo and Break

   
10:45

Poster Session 3

   
12:15

Lunch

   
13:30

Session 4: Continued

Chair: Nikki Lovenduski, University of Colorado  
13:30 Past and future hurricane intensity change along the U.S. East Coast Mingfang Ting, Columbia University Download
13:45 Testing the role of the ocean in AMV using a new CESM Large Ensemble with a slab ocean model (LENS-SOM) Amy Clement, University of Miami Download
14:00 Projected change in climatic drivers of extreme forest productivity, and the impacts on water availability in the western US Linnia Hawkins, Oregon State University Download
14:15

Student Poster Awards

Jen Kay, University of Colorado  
14:25

General Discussion and Next Steps

  Download
15:00

Break and Adjourn Workshop

   
15:00

No shuttle transportation - please arrange your own

   

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