The Large Ensembles Workshop Agenda
| Time | Agenda | Presenter | Presentation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18:30 to 20:30 |
Informal Icebreaker - Sanitas Brewing Co. |
| Time | Agenda | Presenter | Presentation |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Shuttle Schedule |
Download | ||
| 07:30 |
Registration & Continental Breakfast |
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| 08:30 |
Welcome |
Jean-François Lamarque, Director NCAR Climate & Global Dynamics Laboratory | |
| 08:35 | Session 1: Overview of Progress in Large Ensembles |
Chair: John Fyfe, CCMA, Canada | |
| 08:35 | Workshop overview and goals | Clara Deser, NCAR | Download |
| 08:50 | A Multi-model Large Ensemble Archive | Flavio Lehner, NCAR | Download |
| 09:05 | An observationally-based Large Ensemble | Karen McKinnon, University of California - Los Angeles | Download |
| 09:20 | Using Large Ensembles for decadal prediction | Nikki Lovenduski, University of Colorado | Download |
| 09:35 |
Session 2: Attribution & Projection Uncertainty |
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| 09:35 | (Invited) Use of Large Ensembles for detection and attribution | Ben Santer, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory | |
| 09:55 |
14 Poster Lightning Talks (Early Career) |
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| 10:15 |
Break |
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| 10:45 |
Poster Session 1 |
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| 12:15 |
Lunch |
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| 13:40 |
Session 2: Continued |
Chair: Jen Kay, University of Colorado | |
| 13:40 | (Invited) Detecting climate signals with machine learning | Elizabeth Barnes, Colorado State University | |
| 14:00 | Diagnosing externally-forced changes in ENSO dynamics and predictability within a CGCM Large Ensemble | Matt Newman, CIRES/NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory | Download |
| 14:15 | A new analysis framework to detect changes in internal variability under global warming | Sebastian Milinski, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology | Download |
| 14:30 | Variability, trends and sensitivity to aerosol forcing of historical climate simulations in a novel single-model ensemble | Andrea Dittus, University of Reading | |
| 14:45 | The influence of internal climate variability on synoptically-driven poor air quality in Beijing | Christopher Callahan, Dartmouth College | Download |
| 15:00 |
Intro to breakout topics (Value of LEs for evaluation, attribution, and unraveling projection uncertainty) |
Isla Simpson, NCAR | Download |
| 15:15 |
Break |
||
| 15:45 |
Breakout Session 1 |
Download | |
| 17:00 |
Networking Opportunity |
||
| 19:00 |
End of Day 1 |
||
| 19:15 |
Shuttles return to the hotels |
| Time | Agenda | Presenter | Presentation |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Shuttle Schedule |
Download | ||
| 07:00 |
Optional Hike - more details to come |
Pedro DiNezio, Flavio Lehner, and Karen McKinnon | |
| 07:30 |
Continental Breakfast |
||
| 08:30 |
Breakout Synthesis Report |
Pedro DiNezio, University of Texas-Austin | Download |
| 08:45 |
Session 3: Regional Climate Impacts |
Chair: Dan Horton, Northwestern University | |
| 08:45 | (Invited) Regional downscaling of Large Ensembles for hydroclimate applications | Daniel Swain, University of California - Los Angeles | Download |
| 09:05 | Strength in numbers: using climate ensembles to study extreme weather phenomena on long timescales | Colin Zarzycki, Penn State University | Download |
| 09:20 | Historical trends in concurrent regional and global temperature extremes | Deepti Singh, Washington State University - Vancouver | Download |
| 09:35 | Understanding future change in subseasonal temperature variability and heat waves with the large ensemble approach | Haiyan Teng, NCAR | Download |
| 09:50 |
14 Poster Lightning Talks (Early Career) |
||
| 10:10 |
Break |
||
| 10:45 |
Poster Session 2 |
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| 12:15 |
Lunch |
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| 13:40 |
Session 4: New Applications and Methodologies |
Chair: Arlene Fiore, Columbia University | |
| 13:40 | (Invited) Potential Applications of Large Ensembles in the Assessment of Health Impacts of Climate Variability and Change | Patrick Kinney, Boston University | Download |
| 14:00 | Economic impacts of variability under climate change on mortality projections | Kevin Schwarzwald, University of Chicago | Download |
| 14:15 | Using large ensembles to study future changes in terrestrial ecosystems | James Randerson, University of California - Irvine | Download |
| 14:30 | Separating climate variability and climate change: How many ensemble members are needed? | Robert Jnglin Wills, University of Washington | Download |
| 14:45 | Why large ensembles? Exploration of an alternate strategy using small, synthetic ensembles of global climate models | Charles Curry, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium | |
| 15:00 |
Intro to breakout topics (Large Ensemble design considerations, new research directions) |
Tom Delworth, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory | Download |
| 15:15 |
Break |
||
| 15:45 |
Breakout Session 2 |
Download | |
| 17:00 |
End of Day 2 |
||
| 17:15 |
Shuttles return to the hotels |
| Time | Agenda | Presenter | Presentation |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Shuttle Schedule |
Download | ||
| 07:30 |
Continental Breakfast |
||
| 08:30 |
Breakout Synthesis Report |
Jen Kay, University of Colorado | Download |
| 09:00 |
Session 4: Continued |
Chair: Keith Rodgers, Princeton University | |
| 09:00 | (Invited) Statistical simulation of climate time series for hypothesis testing | Amy Braverman, NASA JPL | Download |
| 09:20 | A large ensemble testbed to evaluate pCO2 interpolation methods | Luke Gloege, Columbia University | Download |
| 09:35 | Time of Emergence Model Intercomparison Project "ToE-MIP" for ocean biogeochemistry | Sarah Schlunegger, Princeton University | Download |
| 09:50 | Internal variability in projections of climate change impacts on air quality and health | Fernando Garcia-Menendez, North Carolina State University | Download |
| 10:05 |
14 Poster Lightning Talks (Early Career) |
||
| 10:20 |
Group Photo and Break |
||
| 10:45 |
Poster Session 3 |
||
| 12:15 |
Lunch |
||
| 13:30 |
Session 4: Continued |
Chair: Nikki Lovenduski, University of Colorado | |
| 13:30 | Past and future hurricane intensity change along the U.S. East Coast | Mingfang Ting, Columbia University | Download |
| 13:45 | Testing the role of the ocean in AMV using a new CESM Large Ensemble with a slab ocean model (LENS-SOM) | Amy Clement, University of Miami | Download |
| 14:00 | Projected change in climatic drivers of extreme forest productivity, and the impacts on water availability in the western US | Linnia Hawkins, Oregon State University | Download |
| 14:15 |
Student Poster Awards |
Jen Kay, University of Colorado | |
| 14:25 |
General Discussion and Next Steps |
Download | |
| 15:00 |
Break and Adjourn Workshop |
||
| 15:00 |
No shuttle transportation - please arrange your own |