US Climate Variability and Predictability Program

US AMOC/U.K. RAPID Science Meeting: AMOC Variability: Dynamics and Impacts Agenda

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Annapolis, MD

Meeting Agenda

 

Download Agenda Image removed.

July 16                   July 17                  July 18                   July 19

 

Tuesday, July 16

2nd Floor East Foyer
08:30Registration/Check In
  
Key Ballroom 8
10:30Meeting Begins - Introduction
 (meeting goals, logistics, etc.)
 
Session 1.  Observations and Dynamics of Seasonal to Interannual Timescales
10:40Gerard McCarthy (invited speaker)
 Results from the 26ºN Array  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
11:10Monika Rhein
 Measurements of AMOC components in the subpolar North Atlantic  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
11:30LuAnne Thompson
 Predicting surface heat flux with ocean heat content anomalies in the North Atlantic  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
11:50Christopher Meinen
 Meridional overturning estimates using pilot array data at 34.5°S in the Atlantic  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
12:10Elaine McDonagh
 Oceanic fluxes of freshwater across 26°N  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
12:30Lunch (on your own)
  
Key Ballroom 8
Session 1.  Continued
14:00Steve Yeager (invited speaker)
 The dynamics of historical AMOC variability Image removed. Abstract - Presentation not available
  
14:30Stuart Cunningham
 Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown causes widespread cooling in the Atlantic Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
14:50Adam Blaker
 Historical analogues to the recently observed minima in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
15:10Jian Zhao
 Interannual wind forced variability of the AMOC at 26.5°N  Image removed. Abstract - Slides not available
  
15:30Coffee break
  
16:00Shane Elipot
 The wind stress drives the coherence of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on seasonal and annual time scales   Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
16:20Renellys Perez
 The sensitivity of the MOC and MHT seasonal cycle to wind forcing Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
16:40Thomas Rossby
 On the spatial structure and temporal variability of poleward transport between Scotland and Greenland Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
17:00Louis Clement
 On the effect of eddies and Rossby waves on the Meridional Overturning Circulation Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
Key Ballroom 11 & 12
17:20Poster Session 1
  
2nd Floor South Foyer
18:00All Posters Working Session
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Wednesday, July 17

Key Ballroom 8
Session 1. Continued
08:40Martha Buckley
 Examining the relationship between low-frequency SST and AMOC variability Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
09:00Gokhan Danabasoglu
 An assessment of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II) Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
09:20Jeremy Grist
 The surface-forced overturning of the North Atlantic: Estimates from modern era atmospheric reanalysis datasets Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
09:40Silvia Garzoli
 The fate of the Atlantic Deep Western Boundary Current  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
10:00C.K. Shum
 Decadal evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation  Image removed. Abstract - Presentation not available at this time
  
10:20Coffee break
 

 

Session 2. Observations and Dynamics of Decadal to Multi-Centennial Timescales
10:50Delia Oppo (invited speaker)
 The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: A perspective from paleo archives Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
11:20David Thornalley
 Ocean and atmosphere changes in the North Atlantic over the last millennium  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
11:40Hali Killbourne
 A paleoclimate perspective on Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
12:00Aixue Hu
 Effects of the Bering Strait closure on AMOC and global climate under different background climates  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
12:20Lunch (on your own)
  
14:00Rym Msadek (invited speaker)
 Role of the AMOC as a source of predictive skill on decadal time scales in the GFDL coupled model: promises and limitations  Image removed. Abstract - Presentation not available online (email author for information rym.msadek@noaa.gov)
  
14:30Grant Branstator
 Is AMOC more predictable than North Atlantic heat content? Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
14:50Jon Robson
 Decadal predictions of the cooling of the North Atlantic in the 1960s Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
15:10Mojib Latif
 Dynamics of Southern Ocean centennial variability and AMOC impact Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
Key Ballroom 11 & 12
15:30Poster Session 2
  
Key Ballroom 8
Session 2. Continued
17:00Matthew Menary
 North Atlantic internal decadal variability in HadGEM3 Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
17:20Yohan Ruprich-Robert
 Importance of the seasonality of the ocean- atmosphere relationship to produce multidecadal natural AMV/AMOC variability Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
17:40Jennifer Mecking
 On the stochastic null hypothesis for Atlantic multi-decadal variability Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
18:00End of Day 2
  
18:00U.S. AMOC Executive Meeting (by invitation - 3rd Floor Brent Conference Room)
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Thursday, July 18

Key Ballroom 8
Session 2. Continued 
08:30Sybern Drijfhout: (invited speaker)
 Is there a useful indicator for thresholds in the AMOC? Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
09:00Laura Jackson
 Sea surface temperature and sub-surface density fingerprints of the AMOC in CMIP5 models Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
09:20Wilbert Weijer
 Agulhas Leakage and its impact on the AMOC in the CCSM4 Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
09:40Rong Zhang
 Have aerosols caused the observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability?  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
10:00 Daniel Williamson
 Structural biases affecting the AMOC?  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
10:20Coffee break
  
10:50Wei Cheng (invited speaker)
 The AMOC in CMIP5 models: RCP and historical simulations  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
11:20Alexey Fedorov
 The interdecadal AMOC mode related to westward propagation of temperature anomalies – in theory and in CMIP5 models  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
11:40Jinting Zhang
 The coherence of Atlantic meridional heat transport in climate models Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
12:00Thierry Penduff
 Interannual-to-multidecadal AMOC variability: the intrinsic component  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
12:20Lunch (on your own)
  
Session 3. Climate Impacts
13:50Jianjun Yin (invited speaker)
 Signature of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the North Atlantic dynamic sea level  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
14:20Tal Ezer
 On the impact of the AMOC on sea level rise: new evidence that a slowdown of the Gulf Stream is responsible for accelerating sea level rise along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
14:40Peter Challenor
 Estimating the risk of collapse of the AMOC Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
15:00Joseph Park
 AMO influences on coastal water levels and extremes Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
Key Ballroom 11 & 12
15:20Poster Session 3
  
Key Ballroom 8
Session 3. Continued
16:30Yochanan Kushnir (invited speaker)
 Climatic impacts of long-term North Atlantic SST Variability: Observational evidence and model support Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
17:00Thomas Delworth
 Hemispheric-scale impacts of centennial-scale AMOC variations in the GFDL CM2.5 high-resolution coupled model  Image removed. Abstract - Presentation not available at this time
  
17:20Claude Frankignoul
 The influence of the AMOC variability on the atmosphere in CCSM4  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
17:40Guillaume Gastineau
 The influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the observed Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
18:00End of Day 3
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Friday, July 19

Key Ballroom 8
Session 3. Continued
08:30Ric Williams (invited speaker)
 Climate effects of ocean overturning on heat content anomalies and atmospheric CO2 Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
09:00Andreas Schmittner
 Impacts of AMOC changes on ocean biogeochemistry and atmospheric greenhouse gases inferred from paleoclimate data and modeling Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
09:20Feili Li
 The variability of deep ocean convection and Subpolar Gyre in the North Atlantic Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
09:40Lesley Allison
 An event-based approach to understanding decadal-scale variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and associated climate impacts Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Slides
  
10:00Coffee break
  
10:30

Eric Lindstrom Image removed. Slides

Meric Srokosz Image removed. Slides

 Updates & perspectives from funding agencies
  
10:50David Marshall Image removed. Slides
 Observations and dynamics of seasonal to interannual timescales - perspectives and future challenges
  
11:15Laurent Terray Image removed. Slides  
 Observations and dynamics of decadal to multi-centennial timescales - perspectives and future challenges
  
11:40Mingfang Ting Image removed.  Slides
 Climate impacts - perspectives and future challenges
  
12:05Stuart Cunningham
 Discussion of future challenges
 Closing remarks
  
12:30Meeting Adjourns
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Poster Session 1Observations and Dynamics of Seasonal to Interannual Timescales

Tuesday, July 16

17:20 – 18:00

Key Ballroom 11 & 12

 
  

Magdalena Andres

Boundary currents’ responses to remote forcing: observations from the North Atlantic Line W and the North Pacific PN-line  Image removed.

Adam Blaker

Large near-inertial oscillations of the Atlantic MOC  Image removed.

Amy Bower

A first look at AMOC branches through the Charlie-Gibbs Fracture Zone from a two-year moored array  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Poster

Martha Buckley

Examining the relationship between low-frequency SST and AMOC variability  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Poster

Edmo Campos

Developing an observing array for monitoring meridional fluxes in the Southwest Atlantic  Image removed.

Beth Curry

Observational study of Davis Strait transports  Image removed.

Ruth Curry

Results from the Dynamics of Abyssal Mixing and Interior Transports Experiment (DynAMITE)  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Poster

Ruth Curry

Line W: A continuing record of Deep Western Boundary Current measurements south of New England  

Femke de Jong

Two years of observations of warm core anticyclones in the Labrador Sea and  their seasonal cycle in heat and salt stratification  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Poster

Matthias Fischer

Changes of the AMOC seasonal cycle in MPI-ESM CMIP5 climate projections  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Poster

Eleanor Frajka-Williams

Variability of the DWBC at 26 deg N from in situ observations and satellite measurements  Image removed.

Will Hobbs

The annual cycle of AMOC transport at 41N  Image removed.

Jong Kim

Sensitivity analysis of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation through the POP Tangent Linear and Adjoint Models  Image removed.

David Marshall

Attribution of midlatitude AMOC variations to surface wind, heat and freshwater forcing  Image removed.

Charlotte Mielke

Contribution of the DWBC to the AMOC variability at 26N and line W in a high resolution model  Image removed.

Ben Moat

Improvements to the method used to calculate the MOC using data from the 26ºN array  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Poster

Jon Robson

The importance of wind and buoyancy forcing for the boundary density variations and the geostrophic component of the AMOC at 26N  Image removed.

Jon Robson

Predictability of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic in the mid 1990s and its climate impacts  Image removed.

Zoltan Szuts

Salinity transport through the Florida Straits  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Poster

Virginie Thierry

The Meridional Overturning Circulation north of the AR7W and A25-Ovide lines in recent decades  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Poster

Maria Valdivieso

Atlantic Ocean freshwater transport in a global ocean eddy-permitting reanalysis  Image removed.

Ric Williams

North Atlantic sea level, heat content and MOC variability over the last 60 years estimated from hydrographic data  Image removed.

Xiaobiao Xu

On the transports connected with the AMOC in the subpolar North Atlantic  Image removed.

Jiayan Yang

Wind-driven variability of the Nordic Seas Overflow and its impact on AMOC  Image removed.

Jian Zhao

Wind driven seasonal cycle of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation  Image removed.

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Poster Session 2. Observations and Dynamics of Decadal to Multi-Centennial Timescales

Wednesday, July 17

15:30 – 17:00

Key Ballroom 11 & 12

  

Adam Blaker

Characteristics and variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the RAPIT climate model ensemble  Image removed.

Yanni Ding

AMOC Responses to Volcanic Eruptions in CMIP5 simulations  Image removed.

Paul Gierz

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation stability influenced by the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet under various warming scenarios  Image removed.

Sirpa Hakkinen

Northern North Atlantic sea-surface height and ocean heat content variability  Image removed.

Bohua Huang

Multidecadal oscillation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP5 models  Image removed. Abstract - Image removed. Poster

Laura Jackson

The advective feedback on the AMOC in GCMs  Image removed.

Who Kim

Long-term AMOC changes in NCAR ocean/sea ice and community climate system model twentieth century climate simulations  Image removed.

Douglas MacMartin

Frequency domain analysis of AMOC variability mechanisms  Image removed.

Jennifer Mecking

Multi-model comparison for Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability  Image removed.

Matthew Menary

Mechanisms of aerosol-forced AMOC variability in a state of the art climate model  Image removed.

Les Muir

How well does the Atlantic SST dipole index represent AMOC variability on decadal to centennial timescales?  Image removed.

Jon Robson

The Value Of the RAPID array for climate predictions (VALOR)  Image removed.

Liping Zhang

Role of Atlantic Warm Pool-induced freshwater forcing in the AMOC  Image removed.

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Poster Session 3Climate Impacts

Thursday, July 18

15:20 – 16:30

Key Ballroom 11 & 12 
  

Paola Cessi

Salt feedbacks in the quasi-adabatic overturning circulation  Image removed.

Victoria Coles

Biogeochemical and freshwater impacts on the tropical and subtropical Atlantic due to Amazon River plume variability  Image removed.

Ines Höschel

The influence of decadal variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature on climate extremes  Image removed.

Young-Heon Jo

Nonlinear sea level trends in the Atlantic Ocean  Image removed.

Craig Lee

Autonomous Studies of Coupled Physical-Biogeochemical Processes-  Lessons from NAB08 and Prospects for the Future  Image removed.

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