2025 US CLIVAR Summit Agenda
See Breakout sessions: POS Panel | PSMI Panel | PPAI Panel
Note: All displayed times are in US Mountain Daylight Time (UTC-6)
Plenary Agenda
| Time (MDT) | Agenda | Presenter |
|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | Breakfast and check-in | |
| 08:00 | Welcome and meeting objectives | L. Ruby Leung, PNNL |
| 08:10 | State of the US Climate Science Enterprise | Mike Patterson, US CLIVAR |
| 09:45 | Break | |
| Session | Climate Information For All: Co-Development and Lessons from the Front Range | |
| 10:15 | Session introduction | Conveners: Jason Furtado and Marybeth Arcodia |
| 10:20 | How state climate offices contribute to climate services and engage with local communities | Russ Schumacher, Colorado State University/ Colorado Climate Center |
| 10:40 | Always a bridesmaid, never a bride: The supportive role of social science in coproduction | Aparna Bamzai-Dodson, U.S. Geological Survey* |
| 11:00 | Discussion | |
| 12:00 | Lunch | |
| Session | Observing System and Data Continuity | |
| 13:15 | Session introduction | Conveners: Lynne Talley, Sarah Gille, and Monique Messié |
| 13:20 | Two complementary frameworks for coordinating and leveraging available resources to conduct and maintain marine ecosystem observations in Antarctica | Sharon Stammerjohn, University of Colorado/ INSTAAR/ |
| 13:35 | Finding intersections of need and opportunity in observing system evolution—some reflections | Susan Wijffels, WHOI* |
| 13:50 | Quantifying value of the observations for weather forecasting | Sergey Frolov, NOAA PSL |
| 14:05 | Discussion | |
| 15:00 | Break | |
| Session | Earth System Predictability and Use of New Tools—AI/ML and High-Resolution Modeling | |
15:30
| Session introduction | Conveners: Marybeth Arcodia, Juliana Dias, Kara Lamb, L. Ruby Leung, and Isla Simpson |
15:35 | Exploring the limit of atmospheric predictability with machine learning models | Greg Hakim, University of Washington |
| 15:50 | Machine learning for improved Earth System understanding: A forecast of opportunity lens | Kirsten Mayer, NSF NCAR |
| 16:05 | Contribution of land to S2D predictability through atmosphere-land-ocean interactions | L. Ruby Leung, PNNL |
| 16:20 | Discussion | |
| 17:30 | Networking event | |
| 19:30 | End of day 1 |
| Time (MDT) | Agenda | POS Panel | PSMI Panel | PPAI Panel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | Breakfast | |||
| 08:00 | Panel Breakout Sessions | Scaling up—How to Synthesize the Global Impact of Phenomena Monitored Using Limited Observations [3150] | Missing Sources of Predictability for North American Extremes and Climate Variability [North bay] | Missing Sources of Predictability for North American Extremes and Climate Variability [North bay] |
| 09:45 | Break | |||
| 10:15 | Panel Breakout Sessions | Data Assimilation in a Time of Artificial Intelligence [3150] | New Frontiers for Model Improvement and Process Understanding—At the Confluence of AI and High Resolution [2503] | Identifying Extremes and their Impacts Over Time [2126] |
| 12:00 | Lunch | |||
| 12:15 | NOAA's Climate Data Records Discussion | |||
| 13:15 | Panel Breakout Sessions | Ocean Mixing and Stratification Changes—Tipping Points, Thresholds, Indicators, and Impacts [3150] | The Tropical Air-Sea Transition Zone and its Impact on Climate Extremes—Novel Approaches for Bridging Observational Insights with Climate Model Development [2503] | The Science and Modeling of Wildfire Climate Predictions and Predictability [2126] |
| 15:00 | Break | |||
| 15:30 | Panel Breakout Sessions | Southern Ocean Budgets—What are Gaps in Knowledge to Assess Internal Variability and How Do We Close Them? [3150] | Scale-Dependencies of Bulk Flux Formulas—Small-Scale Heterogeneity and Large-Scale Impacts [2503] | Co-Production—From Predictability to Prediction of Wildfire Risk [2126] |
| 17:15 | End of day 2 |
| Time (MDT) | Agenda | POS Panel | PSMI Panel | PPAI Panel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | Breakfast | |||
| 08:00 | Panel Breakout Sessions | Advance Process Understanding to Inform Modeling at the Coasts [North bay] | Advance Process Understanding to Inform Modeling at the Coasts [North bay] | Ocean Predictions at the Applications Interface [2126] |
| 09:45 | Break | |||
| 10:15 | Panel Business | POS Panel [3150] | PSMI Panel [2503] | PPAI Panel [2126] |
| 12:00 | Lunch | |||
| 13:00 | Breakout reports | |||
| 13:30 | Conclusions and next steps | |||
| 14:00 | Summit adjourns | |||
| 14:30 | SSC meeting | |||
| 15:30 | SSC meeting adjourns |
*Virtual
POS Panel Breakouts
| Time (MDT) | Agenda | Presenter |
|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | Breakfast | |
| Session | Scaling Up—How to Synthesize the Global Impact of Phenomena Monitored Using Limited Observations | [3150] |
| 08:00 | Session introduction | Conveners: Monique Messié and Verena Hormann |
| 08:05 | Isolation and connectivity, or data sparsity in the age of AI | Bror Jönsson, University of New Hampshire |
| 08:20 | Using machine learning to scale scattered biogeochemical observations into gridded products | Jon Sharp, University of Washington/ CICOES* |
| 08:35 | Leveraging the model-observations partnership for advancing process understanding | Charlotte DeMott, Colorado State University |
| 08:50 | Discussion | |
| 09:45 | Break | |
| Session | Data Assimilation in a Time of Artificial Intelligence | [3150] |
| 10:15 | Session introduction | Conveners: Dan Amrhein and Momme Hell |
| 10:20 | Overview of problems and recent progress | Steve Penny, Sofar Ocean |
| 10:35 | AI-augmented data assimilation: Opportunities and hanging fruits | Moha Gharamti, NSF NCAR |
| 10:50 | Data assimilation with guided diffusion models | Peter Manshausen, NVIDIA |
| 11:05 | Discussion | |
| 12:00 | Lunch | |
| 12:15 | NOAA's Climate Data Records Discussion | |
| Session | Ocean Mixing and Stratification Changes一Tipping Points, Thresholds, Indicators, and Impacts | [3150] |
| 13:15 | Session introduction | Conveners: Gaël Forget, Irina Marinov, Natassa Romanou, and Wilbert Weijer |
| 13:20 | High-resolution climate model projections of Beaufort Gyre freshwater and AMOC decline | Xuan Shan, WHOI |
| 13:35 | Oceanic drivers of long-term cooling in the equatorial Pacific cold tongue | Feng Jiang, Columbia University/ LDEO* |
| 13:50 | Leading dynamical processes of global marine heatwaves | Donata Giglio, University of Colorado* |
| 14:05 | Discussion | |
| 15:00 | Break | |
| Session | Southern Ocean Budgets—What are Gaps in Knowledge to Assess Internal Variability and How Do We Close Them? | [3150] |
| 15:30 | Session introduction | Conveners: Wilbert Weijer, Lily Dove, Irina Marinov, and Lynne Talley |
| 15:35 | Atmospheric constraints on the Southern Ocean productivity and seasonal air-sea CO2 and O2 exchange | Yuming Jin, NSF NCAR |
| 15:50 | Southern Ocean budgets: Inventories and satellite-based surface fluxes and Southern Ocean carbon processes and budgets: Notes from SOCCOM3 Annual Meeting June 2025 | Sarah Gille and Lynne Talley, UC San Diego/ SIO |
| 16:05 | Observing the dynamics of the Southern Ocean: Present challenges and future strategies | Lily Dove, Georgia Institute of Technology |
| 16:20 | Discussion | |
| 17:15 | End of day 2 |
| Time (MDT) | Agenda | Presenter |
|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | Breakfast | |
| Session | Advance Process Understanding to Inform Modeling at the Coasts | [North bay] |
| 08:00 | Session introduction | Conveners: Ke Chen, Verena Hormann, Jacob Steinberg, Xiaozhou Ruan, and Melinda Webster |
| 08:05 | Capabilities and challenges in modeling the coastal ocean and climate | Michael Alexander, NOAA PSL (retired) |
| 08:20 | Boundary currents and the coastal climate signal | Dan Rudnick, UC San Diego/ SIO* |
| 08:35 | Nearshore coastal processes at the kilometer-to-meter scale | Melissa Moulton, NSF NCAR* |
| 08:50 | Discussion | |
| 09:45 | Break | |
| 10:15 | Panel Business | [3150] |
| 12:00 | Lunch | |
| 13:00 | Breakout reports | Panel Co-Chairs |
| 13:30 | Conclusions and next steps | L. Ruby Leung, PNNL |
| 14:00 | Summit adjourns |
*Virtual
PSMI Panel Breakouts
| Time (MDT) | Agenda | Presenter |
|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | Breakfast | |
| Session | Missing Sources of Predictability for North American Extremes and Climate Variability | [North bay] |
| 08:00 | Session introduction | Conveners: Jason Furtado, Kevin Grise, Sanjiv Kumar, Baijun Tian, and Ming Zhao |
| 08:05 | Rapid and widespread soil moisture declines in the contiguous United States | Andy Hoell, NOAA PSL |
| 08:20 | Systematic exploration of S2D predictability limits | Stephen Yeager, NSF NCAR |
| 08:35 | S2S model biases can affect predictability of North American weather and climate | Cristiana Stan, George Mason University* |
| 08:50 | Discussion | |
| 09:45 | Break | |
| Session | New Frontiers for Model Improvement and Process Understanding—At the Confluence of AI and High Resolution | [2503] |
| 10:15 | Session introduction | Conveners: Alice Barthel, Juliana Dias, Kara Lamb, Elizabeth Maroon, and Melinda Webster |
| 10:20 | High-resolution Earth System Modeling: Advances, opportunities, and challenges | Gokhan Danabasoglu, NSF NCAR |
| 10:35 | Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin (CREDIT) | David John Gagne, NSF NCAR |
| 10:50 | Land modeling with machine learning | Katie Dagon, NSF NCAR |
| 11:05 | Discussion | |
| 12:00 | Lunch | |
| 12:15 | NOAA's Climate Data Records Discussion | |
| Session | The Tropical Air-Sea Transition Zone and Its Impact on Climate Extremes—Novel Approaches for Bridging Observational Insights with Climate Model Development | [2503] |
| 13:15 | Session introduction | Conveners: Juliana Dias and Alex Gonzalez |
| 13:20 | Revisiting the Atlantic ITCZ with buoys, ships, and aircrafts | Julia Windmiller, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie* |
| 13:35 | USV-based estimation of upper-ocean vertical velocity in the equatorial Pacific | Elizabeth McGeorge, NOAA PMEL* |
| 13:50 | Atmosphere-ocean coupled energy budgets of tropical convective discharge-recharge cycles | Brandon Wolding, University of Colorado/ CIRES |
| 14:05 | Discussion | |
| 15:00 | Break | |
| Session | Scale-Dependencies of Bulk Flux Formulas—Small-Scale Heterogeneity and Large-Scale Impacts | [2503] |
| 15:30 | Session introduction | Conveners: Jacob Wenegrat and Alice Barthel |
| 15:35 | Some thoughts on air-sea fluxes, large and small scale | Justin Small, NSF NCAR |
| 15:50 | The impact of sub-grid heterogeneity on air-sea turbulent heat flux in coupled climate models | Dhruv Balwada, Columbia University* |
| 16:05 | Observational perspective on bulk flux formula | Elizabeth Thompson, NOAA PSL |
| 16:20 | Discussion | |
| 17:15 | End of day 2 |
| Time (MDT) | Agenda | Presenter |
|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | Breakfast | |
| Session | Advance Process Understanding to Inform Modeling at the Coasts | [North bay] |
| 08:00 | Session introductions | Conveners: Ke Chen, Verena Hormann, Jacob Steinberg, Xiaozhou Ruan, and Melinda Webster |
| 08:05 | Capabilities and challenges in modeling the coastal ocean and climate | Michael Alexander, NOAA PSL (retired) |
| 08:20 | Boundary currents and the coastal climate signal | Dan Rudnick, UC San Diego/ SIO* |
| 08:35 | Nearshore coastal processes at the kilometer-to-meter scale | Melissa Moulton, NSF NCAR* |
| 08:50 | Discussion | |
| 09:45 | Break | |
| 10:15 | Panel Business | [2503] |
| 12:00 | Lunch | |
| 13:00 | Breakout reports | Panel Co-Chairs |
| 13:30 | Conclusion and next steps | L. Ruby Leung, PNNL |
| 14:00 | Summit adjourns |
*Virtual
PPAI Panel Breakouts
| Time (MDT) | Agenda | Presenter |
|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | Breakfast | |
| Session | Missing Sources of Predictability for North American Extremes and Climate Variability | [North bay] |
| 08:00 | Session introduction | Conveners: Jason Furtado, Kevin Grise, Sanjiv Kumar, Baijun Tian, and Ming Zhao |
| 08:05 | Rapid and widespread soil moisture declines in the contiguous United States | Andy Hoell, NOAA PSL |
| 08:20 | Systematic exploration of S2D predictability limits | Stephen Yeager, NSF NCAR |
| 08:35 | S2S model biases can affect predictability of North American weather and climate | Cristiana Stan, George Mason University* |
| 08:50 | Discussion | |
| 09:45 | Break | |
| Session | Identifying Extremes and their Impacts Over Time | [2126] |
| 10:15 | Session introduction | Dillon Amaya, Dan Li, Kelsey Malloy, and Christine Shields |
| 10:20 | Modernizing probable maximum precipitation with a large ensemble of high-resolution model simulations | Alex Thompson, University of Colorado/ CIRES |
| 10:35 | Quantifying heat extremes in a changing climate | Karen McKinnon, UCLA* |
| 10:50 | Emerging issues in reinsurance: A weather and climate perspective | Jim Waller, Guy Carpenter & Co., LLC |
| 11:05 | Discussion | |
| 12:00 | Lunch | |
| 12:15 | NOAA's Climate Data Records Discussion | |
| Session | The Science and Modeling of Wildfire Climate Predictions and Predictability | [2126] |
| 13:15 | Session introduction | Conveners: Christine Shields, Weston Anderson, and Maria Molina |
| 13:20 | The wildfire science we have, the gaps we face, and why it matters | Virginia Iglesias, University of Colorado |
| 13:35 | Wildfire prediction and modeling in global vegetation models | Sam Rabin, NSF NCAR |
| 13:50 | Seasonal predictability of vapor pressure deficit in the western United States | Melissa Breeden, NOAA PSL |
| 14:05 | Discussion | |
| 15:00 | Break | |
| Session | Co-Production to Prediction of Wildfire Risk | [2126] |
| 15:30 | Session introduction | Conveners: Kelsey Malloy, John Albers, and Weston Anderson |
| 15:35 | Assessing wildfire risk locally, why it is a DIY project | Mike Chard, Boulder Office of Emergency Management |
| 15:50 | Predicting wildfire risk | Tom Rolinski, Southern California Edison* |
| 16:05 | Bridging the gap between fire weather research and use in operations | Samantha Kramer, Sonoma Technology |
| 16:20 | Discussion | |
| 17:15 | End of day 2 |
| Time (MDT) | Agenda | Presenter |
|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | Breakfast | |
| Session | Ocean Predictions at the Applications Interface | [2126] |
| 08:00 | Session introduction | Conveners: Sarah Larson, John Albers, and Dillon Amaya |
| 08:05 | Applying ocean predictions through NOAA's Changing Ecosystems and Fisheries Initiative (CEFI) | Michael Jacox, NOAA PSL |
| 08:20 | Advancing the Blue Economy through ocean digital twin innovation | Ruoying (Roy) He, North Carolina State University* |
| 08:35 | Navigating coastal inundation prediction stakeholder needs | Gwen Shaughnessy, NOAA Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services |
| 08:50 | Discussion | |
| 09:45 | Break | |
| 10:15 | Panel Business | [2126] |
| 12:00 | Lunch | |
| 13:00 | Breakout reports | Panel Co-Chairs |
| 13:30 | Conclusions and next steps | L. Ruby Leung, PNNL |
| 14:00 | Summit adjourns |
*Virtual